Riding the Hippocamp

He's back?

noreply@blogger.com (Michael Albert) — Mon, 31 Dec 2007 21:33:00 +0000

Well perhaps, if even for only a moment, to wish you all a Happy 2008, from 2008. Gotta take advantage of that date line thing when you can.

Anyhow, early 2008 resolution is to post a bit more regularly (like that's gonna be hard.) The blog may get a bit of a rebranding, as I'm not expecting to be playing much poker, but we'll see how it goes.

2007 is in the books as the year I learned that I shouldn't really play cash. I'm just not temperamentally suited for it I think. So, back to the sit and go arena, and the occasional MTT.

In 2008:

May all your bluffs succeed,
Your value bets be called,
And you river your one outers.

Unless of course, you are at my table.

Merry Christmas to all and to all ...

noreply@blogger.com (Michael Albert) — Tue, 18 Dec 2007 22:26:00 +0000

Yeah, yeah, I'm a bad blogger. No posts in almost two months.

What can I say?

End of academic year, paper deadlines, conference to organize, academic and social visitors, no poker, blah blah blah.

Anyhow, off to Brisbane tomorrow for a couple of weeks, and will reevaluate the future, or lack thereof, of this blog in the new year.

Meanwhile, have fun everyone.

Four too, two four, whatever ...

noreply@blogger.com (Michael Albert) — Thu, 25 Oct 2007 03:35:00 +0000

Following on from Kat, and Fuel, various fours for me. Partly to avoid an embarrassingly large overlap with the latter, I'll go the "low culture" route for the most part:

Four jobs I've held:

Lawn mowing
Undergrad research assistant
Maths lecturer
Computer science lecturer

(Sigh, not very exciting, I know.)

Four films I could watch over and over:

Brazil
A Knight's Tale
The Incredibles
O Brother, Where Art Thou

Four TV shows I watch:

Dr Who
Heroes
CSI X
Absolute Power (if it ever comes back)

Four places I've lived:

Penetanguishene Ont
Oxford UK
Pittsburgh PA
Dunedin NZ

Four favourite foods:

Coquilles St Jacques
Venison goulash
Almond croissant
Brötchen with butter and apricot jam

Four websites I visit daily: Too dull (not the topic, the answers.)

Four favourite colours: Mu

Four places I'd love to be right now:

Arran
Wanaka
Toronto
Actually, it's not too bad here

Four names I like but wouldn't name my children: that would be tempting fate in more ways than one.

Four favourite books:

Ok, so food and books stretched the definition of "low culture" a bit in places. Live with it.

Veeery scaaary stuff ...

noreply@blogger.com (Michael Albert) — Mon, 22 Oct 2007 19:02:00 +0000

23Skidoo of Compromising Anonymity left a comment on my "best pop songs ever" post, pointing me towards a performance of Radio Radio by Elvis Costello (and the Beastie Boys) on SNL.

Thanks to teh magik of teh interwebz it was only a matter of moments before I found it on YouTube:

And, the really scary thing is, it looks like Elvis is related to Mike Matusow.

Hmm ... just found

and now I get the joke at the beginning of the other one. Ah, wheels within wheels.

Sit 'n fold

noreply@blogger.com (Michael Albert) — Thu, 18 Oct 2007 05:58:00 +0000

There's certainly a lot of bridge reading to catch up on, or rather to review, as I've yet to acquire any new books. Regardless, it's left little time for poker. But, I had an hour or so to spare with a stew in the oven, as well as some radio listening to catch up on, so I fired up a turbo SNG.

It seems to me that more people are catching on to the "tight early" strategy, which is a bit worrisome. No one was eliminated from this one until the blinds were 50/100. There were a couple of fairly loose players, but they were sticking to small ball and handing chips around among themselves.

Stayed in my usual shell, including folding AQ suited on the button with a raise and reraise in front of me (the reraiser eventually took down the pot after the flop, so I don't know whether or not I was right). Then got AQ suited again UTG at 15/30. A raise to 100 brought two of the loose players and one other along. So, I felt I had to bet out (300) on the A63 rainbow flop. The two loosies dropped, but the other fellow called. Seemed AJ, AT (maybe), AQ (possible), and AK (unlikely) were his probable hands (or I was near dead to a set). I checked the 5 on the turn, and he bet a ridiculous 120 into a 1045 pot. I called (figuring I was ahead, but aiming to control the pot size just in case) and we both checked the 9 on the river, with my AQ just squeaking out his AJ.

Time for the turtle to pull his head in again. At 25/50 I was forced into a call preflop with T7 suited, a min raise and two callers in front. No joy on the flop, so that was that.

Down to 8 at 50/100 and I got 99 UTG+1. My raise (300) was called by the BB only (one of the loosies and down just under 1000). The 987 rainbow flop looked pretty good to me. He checked, I bet half pot, he pushed, I called, he showed A7. Sweet. Until the board straightened on the turn and river. Sigh.

Tried a steal with 87 suited on the button. Big blind called. I followed when he checked the A42 rainbow flop, and he folded. What an easy game. More folding ensued as we approached the bubble. AT suited in the BB, the SB completed, I raised, he folded.

On the bubble, I'm second in chips with 2300! We have a monster stack, and a 1900 and 1300. Still need to concentrate.

Again I try to steal (at 75/150) from the SB with 74 suited. The BB calls, and the flop is A73 rainbow. I check, intending to fold, but he checks. The turn brings another 7. I bet a suspicious looking "conserving my stack" 350 into the 900 pot. He pushes. I call -- he has 55. We're in the money!

At 100/200 I get AQ in the SB with the button raising. My push sends him packing. I take a bigger hit than necessary with KJ offsuit on the button. My raise is called by the BB. Flop comes AKQ two diamonds. He checks, I bet, he calls. For some reason on the 9 of diamonds turn I feel the need to bet again -- he calls. The river is a truly ugly 6 of diamonds, and I have none of those. He pushes, I fold, leaving myself with about 1700 chips (against 9000 and 2800).

I squeak into second when the big stack pushes over a raise from the button, and is called. They race, TT against KQ and TT holds up.

So, we start heads up with me outchipped by about 8:1. I push J9 offsuit on the first hand, called by 72 offsuit (sorry, this wasn't a blogger game, so that just can't be right ...) Two nines on the flop, and I can hear destiny calling. We trade small pots for a while and then I win a race (22 vs KQ) so the chips are almost even.

Well anyhow, we bounced around for a while as one does, and then with stacks almost even agian at 200/400/25 I got 66 in the BB. He completed, I pushed and he called with K7 suited in spades. A race, but a pretty bad call in my opinion (I suspect a "let's get this over with" call). The flop had a 6 for me, but two spades for him. And the turn completed his flush.

Perhaps that wasn't destiny calling, but a siren. Oh, ye of little faith. The board duly paired on the river, and I mopped up his few remaining chips (less than 2BB) with A9 v 32 on the next hand.

I wonder what he meant by that?

noreply@blogger.com (Michael Albert) — Mon, 08 Oct 2007 19:42:00 +0000

So, my last post on pop music having been such a raging success (cough), let's try another variation on that theme:

Your favourite lyrics that sound really impressive, but which you've never been quite sure of the actual meaning of.

And, to kill any possible suspense, I'll start with three of my own.

Number 3: The Invisible Man (Elvis Costello and the Attractions, Punch The Clock)

Crowds surround loudspeakers hanging from the lampposts
Listening to the murder mystery
Meanwhile someone's hiding in the classroom
Forging the books of history

I always thought that last line was "Polishing the books of history", which both scans better and is less obvious. And I've just listened to the song three times, and I'm still not sure. Costello can be like that, creating some really interesting double entendres by fudging on pronunciation in places (the best one I can think of is in Red Shoes, where in "chasing after vengeance" the "v"-word could be any one of: vengeance, visions, virgins. The latter works particularly well in conjunction with "punctured" in the next line.)

Number 2: The Call of the Wild (David Byrne, Rei Momo)

Albert Einstein wrote equations
God told Noah "Build an Ark"
Johnny Mathis sings Cole Porter
To bring light into the dark.

Slightly fish in a barrel as you could pick just about any verse of any given David Byrne song and use it.

And at number 1, from my favourite obscure Canadian band

Number 1: Wrong Kind of Right (Doug and the Slugs, Wrap It)

Tie it all up (tie it up, tie it up!)
With a piece of hemp from a hang man's memory
We'll attempt to redefine geometry

This time the official site no less claims that it's "Add it all up" and "the hang man's". But, my ears do not lie (at least not yet -- despite advancing years, they at least still seem to be working adequately.)

Probably no accident that two of my choices deal with mathematics in some way. What are yours?

Update on "best pop/rock song ever"

noreply@blogger.com (Michael Albert) — Sun, 07 Oct 2007 22:42:00 +0000

It's not too late to vote or make suggestions! See the original post, if you don't know what I'm talking about. (Remember the basic criterion: must have received significant commercial air time without dropping into the "I never want to hear that again" category.)

Fuel55 weighed in with an enormous list. But, his first suggestion (Bowie's Young Americans) is certainly right up there. I'd want to include some other Bowie classics from that general era as well: Changes, Suffragette City, Space Oddity.

Mr Subliminal was more restrained, putting up Led Zeppelin's Stairway to Heaven (sorry, for me at least, it's in the too long and too overplayed categories), and the Stones Sympathy for the Devil (excellent, and of course there are plenty of other Stones candidates as well.)

I'd like to put some songs from The Who or Queen on the list, except I'm afraid that overexposure through CSI "insert city name here", and relentless playing of We are the Champions at sporting events (when it wasn't really much good to begin with), as well as the excessive length of Bohemian Rhapsody probably disqualify them. Well, perhaps except for My Generation, which for some of us at least is starting to acquire a nice ironic ring. I'm acquiring a collection of My Generation covers on my iPod -- would appreciate pointers to any new ones (so far I have the original, Green Day, and Patti Smith.)

Tangentially, does anyone remember The (remants of the) Who doing Won't get Fooled Again at one of the post 9/11 benefits (Madison Square Garden I think). Talk about irony.

How to win at Sit and Gos

noreply@blogger.com (Michael Albert) — Sat, 06 Oct 2007 21:57:00 +0000

This morning, having an hour to kill before the kick off of the event of which we will never speak again (la, la, la, la, ..., I can't heeeeaaaaarrrrrr you!), and not being willing to watch the pregame show without some diversion, I fired up a turbo Sit and Go on Stars. Which I won. And as a result of which, I can now share the three word secret to winning at Sit and Gos:

Be a luckbox.

I had no hands in the early levels, and we were well into the 75/150 level before the first elimination at the table occurred. Down to 1200 chips I then picked up KK in the cutoff. All folded to me, and with a small stack in the SB I decided to try a minimum raise for tactical reasons (and, because anyone who had just seen me fold a zillion hands in a row would be unlikely to call anything else). The SB came along (he had less than a full call), and then the BB doubled my bet. I raised all in of course and was delighted to be facing KT in the SB and TT in the BB. No disasters on the board and I was up to 2,500 chips.

At 100/200 I got AA on the button. One limper in front, but he and the blinds folded to my raise to 600. So far, a fairly normal SnG. But, the card deadness returned.

I drifted down below 1500 again when I felt I needed to take a small stab at a paired flop in a blind v blind limpfest. Unfortunately, my co-blind had a flush draw and an ace and wasn't going anywhere.

On the bubble now, but truly on life support, with only 600 remaining after posting the SB, I pushed with A7 after two folds and collected the blinds and antes. And then the luckbox factor kicked in. On the next hand, from the button (200/400/25), I pushed with K4 suited. The small blind, A6 suited called. The flop came 578. The turn paired his ace. And the river two paired him, hitting my gutshot.

Pushed TT from UTG on the next hand, and collected blinds and antes. Suddenly, I was actually second in chips (but a long way back of first). Next hand, the bubble popped. UTG was all in for less than a full blind with KQ against my mighty 96. I paired, he didn't. Next, my A5 lost to the remaining small stack's A9 making me the small stack, but I returned the favour with A8 beating his A6, making a gratuitous full house. Split pot with my AK against the other big stack's A5 (double paired board, sigh.)

The small stack made his exit when his K2 suited couldn't beat the other player's T6 offsuit (Broadway straight on the river), and we settled down to heads up. With the blinds already at 300/600 it was basically a pushfest. After a few exchanges in his favour I was outchipped almost 3:1. But JT was good enough against A6 for a double up. Then, after drifting off a bit again, I essentially ended it with T9 against A7 despite a J73 flop. The T on the turn was nice, and the other one on the river, unnecessary, but even nicer.

It was then of course a formality that my 87 would win the next hand against T4 (all in for less than the BB preflop) despite a T64 flop. The 9 on the turn was surely inevitable. So, there we have it. Not actually as lucky as I remembered it, but I certainly won more than my share of 35-40% hands.

There was no joy in Mudville (RWC VI)

noreply@blogger.com (Michael Albert) — Sat, 06 Oct 2007 21:25:00 +0000

France 20, New Zealand 18

As I'm going to have to suffer through the post mortems to the All Blacks quarter final loss to France until the next World Cup in 2011, I thought I'd get mine in early and then go invest in a large pair of noise canceling headphones.

There is no doubt that the better team lost. But, they weren't beaten so much as they failed to win. One of the persistent failings of the All Blacks is a certain arrogance in their play. When it's clear that they are winning the close physical battles, the war of attrition, they persist in trying to land the knock out punch. Of course, to stretch the analogy to breaking point, that opens up their defenses, and gives the dominated opponent the chance to retaliate.

It's an unfortunate Kiwi tendency to blame the referee for every loss, and one that I try very hard to resist. But, in this case, there's no doubt that he played a huge part. Rugby, more than any other competitive sport, is a game where the referee is very influential, partly because the rules, particularly those governing the ruck (that bit where everyone is on the ground scrambling for the ball) are hugely technical. And the refereeing in this game was, to put it kindly, inept. In the first half, he persistently penalized the All Blacks in the breakdown, taking away their dominance there. Then, in the second half he gave a 10 minute penalty to Luke McAlister because a French player ran into him and then did an Oscar-worthy dive. Short handed, the All Blacks were threatening the French line, and the French were persistently offside on the blind side, not called. And finally of course, the pass that set up the winning French try was blatantly forward. And that's not all.

But, enough about the referee. The All Blacks seemed to have a pretty good game plan in the first half, aiming at playing for territory and using their (surprising) superiority in the lineout. But the kicks weren't reaching touch, so for the most part it came to naught. With a decent advantage, that knock out punch mentality took over. Silly passes, silly kicks, and the French got a heartening penalty to finish the half.

Enough of all that, time to go wash the ashes out of my mouth.

Didn't see that one coming (RWC V)

noreply@blogger.com (Michael Albert) — Sat, 06 Oct 2007 17:40:00 +0000

Quarter finals: England 12, Australia 10.

Only such a parochial and jingoistic organization as the BBC could call a 12-10 victory "thrilling", but certainly "surprising", "stunning", and "what is the world coming to" could all be applied.

It's presently 0640 on Sunday here, and I'm up waiting for the kickoff of the All Blacks - France match at 0800. More on that later ...

Just so the pipes don't freeze.

noreply@blogger.com (Michael Albert) — Fri, 05 Oct 2007 18:20:00 +0000

Nominations for "the greatest pop/rock song ever" please. Main criterion is that it must have received significant commercial air time, but that when it comes up on your iPod your reaction isn't "I never want to hear that again sober" (e.g. Hotel California), but rather "maybe I'll hit skip/back when it's finished so that I can hear it again".

For me, there can't be any doubt, it's Sultans of Swing by Dire Straits. Various songs by Elvis Costello (Radio Radio and Chelsea to name two), and Talking Heads (Psycho Killer, Once in a Lifetime, Life During Wartime) come close; but there's just something about that upbeat drum/guitar intro that hooks me every time.

So, what say you?

And I might even take a day off work to do it

noreply@blogger.com (Michael Albert) — Tue, 02 Oct 2007 23:36:00 +0000

Gotta love freerolls, and of course PokerStars is "my" site.

I have registered to play in the PokerStars World Blogger Championship of Online Poker!

This Online Poker Tournament is a No Limit Texas Holdem event exclusive to Bloggers.

Registration code: 2137979

Back from Hamilton

noreply@blogger.com (Michael Albert) — Sun, 30 Sep 2007 23:47:00 +0000

I just returned from a week at the 22nd national NZ Bridge congress, and am predictably tired. Trying to get to sleep day after day after three hours of intense concentration finishing about 11:30 pm is no easy task, so I usually didn't drop off until 2:00 am or so, and was often up by about 7:00 am (stupid body clock.)

My results weren't great, partly because I was playing in unfamiliar partnerships, having left my decision to play until the last minute. The other reason of course is that I haven't been taking bridge seriously for a number of years now, and am more than a little rusty. I did get a few articles published in the bulletin (see links at the site above) including a couple of rather dodgy poems. And they were kind enough to give me a couple of bottles of decent wine for my contributions. So, that was nice.

But what was even nicer was rediscovering the sheer joy that bridge can provide. A large part of that comes in the endless post mortems with your friends and peers, analyzing hands from the bidding through the play of each card and trying to learn and profit from that learning (profit of course, purely in the abstract sense -- we're not talking about real money here.) This is something that doesn't really happen much in poker, for a couple of reasons. The glaringly obvious one is that you don't play the same hands as others (though I see that an attempt has been made to introduce duplicate poker) so they can't offer fully informed comment on your play, nor do you necessarily want to share your thought processes and techniques.

And then there are purely sublime moments that occur at bridge, which I at least have never experienced the like of in poker. The closest I can come to it in poker is the feeling that comes after you've carefully misrepresented a monster and dragged someone into an all in pot, massively behind. Times when you profit not from the mistakes of your opponents (which is also in bridge where the large part of your profit must come from) but from your own skillful play. And in bridge it can be a matter of pure skill -- of spotting an opportunity because of the combination of the 26 cards you can see and the 26 that you can't and exploiting it. Or, of using the ideas and features of your own bidding system to arrive at a good contract that won't be found elsewhere.

On Saturday morning there were three such hands in a 26 board session. I'm still not entirely down from the high that they produced. That may be a juvenile and inappropriate reaction but it's taught me something: I'm a bridge player, not a poker player.

I'll probably keep playing a bit of poker. If nothing else it's a method of relaxing and enjoying ones self for an hour, with the possibility of a bit of profit on the side. When I do, I'll probably blog a bit about it here, but updates will be even more irregular than they have been until now.

I might start a bridge blog too ... or maybe not ...

The police are at the door (RWC IV)

noreply@blogger.com (Michael Albert) — Tue, 18 Sep 2007 20:44:00 +0000

And they're asking questions about my failure to post concerning the All Blacks/Portugal game. Well, as expected it was pretty much a non event, the All Blacks 108-13 win representing roughly an expected score (some local optimists had been talking about 150 or 200 but realistically that was never going to happen). To their credit, Portugal put in a pretty good 15 to 20 minutes in each half, before exhaustion set in and the AB's scored at will.

Just watched Scotland beat Romania 42-0. A fairly workmanlike but not entirely convincing performance. Especially if, as expected, Scotland rest some of their top players against the AB's, their match this weekend may not have much to recommend it.

Ah, it's not the police after all, it's my taxi. I'm off to the North Island for 10 days of bridge. Probably no updates at this end over that period.

How not to play aces (3)

noreply@blogger.com (Michael Albert) — Sat, 15 Sep 2007 01:48:00 +0000

An exhibit from yours truly for a change.

I'm deal A♠A♥ in the big blind. UTG limps, and a poster checks. The SB folds. I always raise, generally pot, in this position. But, the UTG limper was a habitual limp-folder, and the poster was an incredibly tight player. So I elected to check.

When the flop came 4♦4♣J♦ I didn't want to bet because I was worried that both players would assume a big blind special with a four in my hand. So I checked again, and it was checked around.

Things didn't get much better on the turn, which was the 2♦. Finally, I decided I needed to bet, and bet the minimum $0.25 which UTG called.

The river brought the Q♣. I bet the minimum again, and now UTG put in a minimum raise. Knowing what I'd see, I called. Sure enough he showed Q♦T♦ for the flush.

I'm so embarrassed.

Swing low, sweet chariot (RWC III)

noreply@blogger.com (Michael Albert) — Sat, 15 Sep 2007 00:07:00 +0000

England's rugby chariot must be riding low indeed after an inept performance by the current world cup holders resulted in a 36-0 drubbing by South Africa. In fact, it wouldn't be surprising to see them miss the knock out phase of the competition as they are by no means a lock to beat Samoa.

Fundamental, schmundamental

noreply@blogger.com (Michael Albert) — Tue, 11 Sep 2007 20:43:00 +0000

Possibly the most over-hyped theoretical principle in poker is Sklansky's "Fundamental Theorem". All it really says is: "Poker is a zero sum game". What makes it worse is that it says it in a way that makes it easy to misinterpret. Now that's not directly Sklansky's fault (except inasmuch as he maintains the incredibly arrogant position that clear expression is less important than good ideas) but it does mean that it's not uncommon to run across howlers like the following from Barry Tanenbaum:

...if you raise with a hand what your opponents are correct to call, and they do call, you lose ...

from which he then infers that the raise was incorrect.

That's just so wrong. It can be correct both for you to raise, and for your opponent to call. Here's a simple example. There's a $10 bill on the table. We're going to draw one card from a shuffled deck. If it's an Ace through seven I win, if not, you win. Obviously I have a 7/13 chance to win. The catch is that I can raise the stakes, putting an extra $20 into the pot. You either have to match this or fold.

Am I correct to bet? Certainly. If I don't bet, my expectation is 70/13. If I do bet and you fold, I win $10 and am better off. If I do bet and you call, I still win that $10 seven times in 13, and I win our $20 sidebet seven times in 13 at even money.

Are you correct to call? Let's start you out with a $20 bill in your wallet. If you fold it's still there. If you call, then seven times in 13 your wallet is empty, and six times in 13 it contains $50. Since 300/13 > 20, you're better off calling (unless that $20 is very very important to you!)

Sure this is a simplified situation, as opposed to the one Barry is considering (what to do on the button preflop if one or both of the blinds never fold to a preflop raise). His conclusion, that it may be correct to limp with some hands, is certainly defensible (if nothing else, it lends authority to subsequent continuation bets on hands that begin with a raise), but it has nothing to do with the fundamental theorem of poker.

Where there's muck there's brass

noreply@blogger.com (Michael Albert) — Tue, 11 Sep 2007 07:45:00 +0000

Or, just for a change, how not to play KK.

Two limps to the small blind who holds KK. He completes. I check my powerhouse 96 offsuit in the big blind. The flop comes 992, two suited. He checks. I bet 1/2 pot ($0.50) which clears out the limpers, and he calls. My worry about the flush draw goes away on the turn, which is a 6. Again he checks. I bet a little more than 1/3 pot ($0.75). Now he min raises.

Not sure what I should do here, but I min-reraise, trying to represent a poor overpair (but of course we know I was unlikely to have checked preflop with T's or better.) He seems to be getting the message and just calls. The river is an 8. He returns to his checkered ways and checks, I bet a little less than 1/2 pot, and he calls.

Not bad for a hand I would have laid down preflop to even a min raise.

Side note: I was listening to some of my "back issues" of the CBC radio Comedy Factory podcast (I've fallen behind on my radio listening, but the return of "Fighting Talk" reminded me to get going again) and they managed to slip into the dialog of a sketch:

"Oh Canada, you homely naive land."

Hmm ... perhaps you have to be a Canadian ...

Say it isn't so ...

noreply@blogger.com (Michael Albert) — Sun, 09 Sep 2007 05:19:00 +0000

I may actually be suffering from football overload. This weekend we have had:

The opening of the rugby world cup (8 matches total)
A significant round of matches in the domestic rugby union competition (7 matches)
The first round of playoffs (four matches) in the National (that is Australian, with one NZ team) rugby league
European qualification matches in "association football" (or just football, or soccer)
The first round of playoffs (prior to the oxymoronically named "preliminary finals") in Garthmeister's favourite game, Aussie rules (two matches?)
Oh yeah, there's that other game ... gridiron (I did actually watch some of the Colts/Saints)

And no, I haven't watched them all, but that's not entirely for lack of trying.

Too easy (RWC II)

noreply@blogger.com (Michael Albert) — Sat, 08 Sep 2007 21:49:00 +0000

All Blacks: 76
Italy: 14

I have a confession to make.

I watched this game on tape delay. There are a lot of things I'll do that start at 2345, well some things, well perhaps a few things. But, it turns out that watching a game which was always due to be a blow out in favour of the All Blacks isn't one of them.

The worrying thing is that Italy are the second or third best team in New Zealand's pool, so it looks like the All Blacks won't get any sort of a reasonable test until the quarter finals. However, that said, they put out a pretty well disciplined performance, only getting a bit care free and sloppy late in the second half.

Row, row, row

noreply@blogger.com (Michael Albert) — Sat, 08 Sep 2007 02:04:00 +0000

One of these boats comes from the perspective of the figurehead, the other one from the other head ...

UTG+1 I get 8♥8♣ and limp. A player in MP and the blinds come along for the ride. The flop is a lovely Q♥8♠2♥. The SB checks and the BB leads for $0.25 into the $1 pot. I raise to $1, which folds out the other two players, but the BB calls. The turn is the 2♣

"Oh please please please have a two" think I.

It seems that my prayer has been heard as he leads for just less than the pot. I call. The river is the A♥

"Oh please please please have A2" think I.

Another near pot sized bet comes out, and I reraise him all in. Sure enough, A♣2♠. Glad to have the gods smiling at me for a change.

In the other hand, I'm in the big blind with J♦2♠. I get to see a free flop with just one MP player and the BB. The flop of J♥J♠9♦ looks pretty good to me. To my surprise, the SB leads with a pot sized ($0.75) bet. I call, and the other player folds. I'm not sure I care a great deal for the turn which is the 10♠. However, the BB leads with a probish looking $0.50 so I raise to $2.00. He min-reraises to $3.50 which now worries me a bit (KQ?). However, I'm getting 5:1 on my call at this point and can hardly do less. My boat finally arrives on the river (how appropriate) which is the 2♦. He leads for $3 into the $9.25 pot, and though I'm well aware I could be losing to JT or J9 I reraise an additional $6 to put him all in (I have him well covered of course). He calls, and shows 9♥9♣.

Ruby World Cup I

noreply@blogger.com (Michael Albert) — Fri, 07 Sep 2007 22:53:00 +0000

Blogging from New Zealand as I do, I am actually under a legal obligation to cover the Rugby World Cup in detail, regardless of the notional subject of this blog. So, here we go:

The Rugby World Cup kicked off today (I should further mention at this point that part of the obligation requires me to use cliches/hackneyed phrases wherever possible) with the traditional cringe inducing opening ceremony. Fortunately, as this began at 0600 local time I only caught the last few minutes of it prior to the first game of the tournament.

That game pitted the hosts, France, against Argentina. Ever since Argentina scrapped their policy of not selecting players based overseas they have been improving steadily. The French have been picked by some as second favourites for the tournament, but are famously consistent only in their inconsistency.

It was the Mr Hyde version of the French team that turned up today, with an error ridden performance, lacking entirely in the offensive flair for which they are famous. To be fair, the Argentinians applied the pressure with constant high kicks, and determined defense. Final score: 17-12 to Argentina, in an entertaining match even if it wasn't of the highest quality.

That puts the pressure on my friends from Ireland who play in the same group. With only two from the group to qualify, France will certainly be determined not to lose another game. New Zealand kick off (can I use that again?) their campaign tonight (local time) against Italy in what should be a walk in the park.

For a more professional description, featuring yet more of your favourite sporting cliches, see the New Zealand Herald.

Drip, drip, drip

noreply@blogger.com (Michael Albert) — Thu, 06 Sep 2007 04:29:00 +0000

That's the sound that has been coming from my bathroom faucet for some time, so today I thought the time had come to repair a leak. Unfortunately, I didn't get very far with it. In common with most Kiwi houses, there's only a single cut off valve for the water -- a tap in a hole in the sidewalk, where the main pipe comes in to the house. And evidently it hasn't been used for a while. In fact, I was quite unable to fully turn off the water. I could manage to restrict the flow so that if I ran the tap in the tub, then I didn't get water at the sink, but I wasn't very happy with that as an assurance if I started to take the hardware apart. So, no joy on that front.

But, when I sat down to play a bit of poker, I was happy to find out that apparently without any conscious intervention on my part, at least one leak had been plugged. In the past, in card dead sessions I had a habit of losing much more than I should have. On the rare occasion that I actually did get into a pot, I tended to be unwilling to fold. Today, despite cards that had my "voluntarily put in pot" percentage in the single figures at four different tables, I managed to avoid that.

And, just to make sure that I appreciated the lesson, the poker gods rewarded me with two hands that were enough to lock in a moderate win for the session. The first "a draw too far":

PokerStars Pot-Limit Hold'em, $0.25 BB (9 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: HTML)

Preflop: Hero is UTG+1 with Q♣, A♥.
UTG calls $0.25, Hero raises to $1, 2 folds, MP3 calls $1, 3 folds, BB calls $0.75, UTG folds.

Flop: ($3.35) Q♥, 8♣, 5♣ (3 players)

BB checks, Hero bets $2, MP3 folds, BB calls $2.

Turn: ($7.35) 6♠ (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $5, BB calls $5.

River: ($17.35) A♦(2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $5, BB calls $5.

Final Pot: $27.35

Villain had A♣9♣ so I guess the river made me some money. But if he thought he was getting any implied odds from me if another club hit, he would have been surprised.

And the second was a classic set under set cooler for my opponent. I'd limped from early position with pocket 8's. The flop came A♠8♠3♣. The blinds checked and I put in a half pot sized bet. The button called, as did one of the blinds. At this point, and based on some reads, I actually thought the button was on a decent ace and thought he had me outkicked (or, remembering back, a spade draw). The Q♣ on the turn looked good to me as I hoped for a two pair hand now. Still, I had to make the spade draw pay for the privilege of seeing the river (especially as the pot was still three handed). So, I led $1.50 into the $2.50 pot. A min raise from the button was good news, and cleaned out the blind. I reraised to $7 and he just called. The 9♥ on the river was a problem only if he had precisely T♠J♠ (no other JT was consistent with the previous action), so I led fairly confidently with $5 into the $16.50 pot.

Had I known about the set of three's, I might have tried a bit more. But, showing some discipline, he just called.

If only the other leak could have been so easily taken care of ...

I wasn't finished, 99

noreply@blogger.com (Michael Albert) — Tue, 04 Sep 2007 23:45:00 +0000

The hand from yesterday's sit and go that stuck in my mind was the 99 hand from the button, three handed. I had a few comments about it from Fuel, and I also posted a thread on 2+2 which (amazingly) generated some sensible replies. So, here it is again, together with some summaries and further thoughts.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (3 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero (t3600)
SB (t4853)
BB (t6547)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9♦9♠.
Hero raises to t600, SB calls t500, 1 fold.

Flop: (t1400) K♣, 6♣, 5♠ (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t800, SB raises to t1600, Hero ???

As played

This is a difficult decision -- a simple call is out of the question, so it's fold or all in. Fold leaves 2200 chips behind, and of course all in has me playing for my tournament life (I can assume that the SB won't fold getting better than 3:1 odds). For geeks like me, at this stage of a sit and go you need to think about more than just chip equity -- you need to use the independent chip model. Fortunately (after the fact) there are handy calculators for this, and, using one of them, I can work out that we'd need to be winning the pot about 35% of the time for a shove at this point to be a break even move. As all my estimates are going to be rough ones, I'll take that as a guideline, possibly padding it a bit on the high side since I feel I have a bit of a skill advantage over my opponents (always!) so there's a premium on staying in the game.

If I'm already behind at this point (to a king, a pair tens or higher, or a set of 6's or 5's) I'm basically drawing to 2 outs and have 8% equity in the pot. If I'm ahead, my opponent likely has at least six outs (two overcards or underpair plus overcard), and possibly many more (flush draws, combo draws etc.) So my equity, if ahead, is something between 50% and 75%. Call it 70% for optimism.

Basically that suggests that I need to believe that I'm ahead a little less than 1/2 the time (if my estimates are correct and I'm ahead 1/2 the time then I have a 39% chance of winning).

As we know, at the time I folded, and I'm relatively happy with that. I don't think that my opponent's raise in this game, and under these circumstances, is a bluff or semi-bluff (or underpair) half the time.

Reflection

The main difficulty in the decision is caused by the fact that the bet sizing to this point left me in an all in or fold situation. There are two ways around this: bet more (i.e. everything) preflop; or bet less.

Shoving certainly merits consideration. If I assume a relatively tight calling range (true at the table I believe) of something like TT+, AJ+, KQ then I'll only get called about 1 time in 14 by either blind individually, so 1 time in 7 collectively. When I'm called my equity against that range is 33%. So, 18 times in 21 I'll gain 300 chips, 1 time in 21 gain a bit more than 3600, and 2 times in 21 lose 3600. The gains certainly outnumber the losses but ICM might have a bit to say about this (in fact it seems to suggest that pushing is about the same as folding preflop). But, the wider we make the opponents' calling range the happier we are.

What about the other approach? Limp and give up on all but the best of flops (containing a 9 or three low cards)? That seems a bit peculiar but perhaps worth considering if only to vary our play.

Finally, I think the winner is a smaller preflop raise. For the sake of argument let's look at a raise to 400 i.e. 2BB and suppose the hand plays out similarly to the original example. The SB calls, then checks. I bet 500 into a 900 pot and he raises to 1000. The pot is now 2400, and I still have 2700 behind. A push at this point actually leaves me in effectively the same position we discussed originally but probably has some fairly significant fold equity -- including folding a number of hands that beat us at present (e.g. TT, JJ, KQ, possibly KJ). Furthermore, some drawing hands that would have been able to call correctly originally are now not getting the correct odds.

Conclusion

In short handed games with an intermediate stack (15-20 BB) and a decent, but not premium hand on the button, consider a smaller than normal preflop raise.

It's been a while

noreply@blogger.com (Michael Albert) — Tue, 04 Sep 2007 07:12:00 +0000

Since I played any sit and go's, and of course a bit longer since I won one. But tonight, the $25 tables all looked extremely rocky (last night of a holiday weekend in N. America -- I guess everyone had had enough, or gone to bed early for work tomorrow). So, with the Antique Roadshow in the background, I fired up a couple of the one table $3.40 turbos on Stars.

Exited in a coinflip in 7th place on one (my tens against AK). But, the other went relatively well...

Did my usual lurk between 1000 and 1300 chips as the first few players busted out, and then as the blinds went up entered pushbot mode. At 100/200 with four players remaining I was down to 800 chips in the BB with Q8s, and the SB just completed. I thought about pushing, but chose to see a flop -- AKQ rainbow, with one card in my suit. The SB led for 200 into the pot and I decided that an ace would certainly have raised preflop, and a king might have. Besides, a king would have a hard time calling a push here. On top of all that was the quite reasonable possibility that his bet was a simple bluff. So I pushed, and collected a bit of breathing room when he folded. I actually think that this was the critical hand for me

Next hand I had KQo in the SB, folded to me. I pushed (7BB) of course and picked up another 200 bringing me to 1600. And then, the very next hand, with perfect timing, I got AA on the button. I pushed again, and sure enough one of the blinds decided that I'd really lost it and called -- to be fair, he was the big stack and had KQo so not such a ridiculous call.

We burst the bubble when someone else tried to play AA -- SB completed, the BB with AA raised to 3BB, SB called. On a 762 flop the SB pushed, and the BB called. Well ahead of 87o, he unfortunately lost to the runner runner straight.

Next button I had 99. But, with 18BB to my name now, too much to push. I put in a standard raise, called by the SB. The flop was a two tone K65. He checked, I bet 800 into the 1400 pot and he min-raised. I folded. I'm not sure about this bet -- perhaps I should just try to get out of the hand cheaply. Down to 11BB, and definitely the smallest of the three stacks.

I got lucky when one big stack took his two paired 63o up against a slow played set of aces belonging to the other big stack. He tilt pushed on the next hand with K5 offsuit (actually with 8BB on the button, not at all a ridiculous push), and I found 99 in the BB and cleaned him up.

So, I entered heads up play at a 7:2 chip disadvantage. After 35 hands the positions were reversed. After 40 they were back to the original. Fought back to even, then back down again at 48 hands. On this hand my opponent raised (as he had been doing very aggressively) from the SB for about half my stack. With K6 offsuit, I felt I had a marginal overpush and did. He called with 87 suited, hit a 7 on the flop, but I was rescued by a king on the river. From there I hit a few flop and pushed up to a 4:1 chip advantage.

After 56 hands, an eternity in a turbo sit and go, it was all over, as I took the final hand in a coinflip with 55 vs Q7.