Tuesday, November 21, 2006

Mistaken identity

Waffles recently had a post concerning good vs. bad calls. The comments got a bit heated, prompting a follow up but I found the general topic intriguing.

So, I'll add further fuel to the anecdotal fire with a couple of hands from last night.

Exhibit A


A single table, non-turbo, sit and go. There were three bustouts very early but since then just general circulation of chips. Al has 2200 chips and the remaining stack sizes (in thousands) are approximately: 1, 1, 2, 3, 4.3. Blinds are 50/100. Al is UTG+1 and is dealt A2o. He chooses to limp (we won't discuss that decision at this time). The button, one of the short stacks, who has been playing tight, pushes and the blinds fold. Call or fold?

Exhibit B


A freeroll for entry chips to another freeroll. About 150 of 7000 entrants remain, and 27 will be rewarded. Bert, on the button, has a slightly above average stack of 25BB. A MP player min-raises, and Bert, holding AQs raises to 6BB. All fold back to the MP position who, having Bert covered, pushes. Call or fold?

Discussion


Al's decision. How desperate is the button? How good is Al's hand against his range? Call is 900 into a 1250 pot so from a pure chip equity standpoint Al should want to be winning a little more than 40% of the time. But, other factors are also important. If Al loses then he's a short stack with the blinds approaching. If Al wins, he's only a big medium stack, and the game is still not on the bubble. A genuinely tough spot. I think that discretion is the better part of valour here -- the pot is small enough that folding doesn't improve the button's position all that much, and Al's loss is a mere slap on the wrist for a questionable limp.

Bert's decision In the abstract, a clear cut fold. MP's betting screams of AA, KK, maybe AK or QQ, double maybe JJ. Against almost all of this range Bert is crushed. But, knowing all this he calls, happily. Why? The English premier league highlight show has just started. Bert has little interest in continuing the freeroll with a less than average stack, but is prepared to split his attention if he doubles up. As expected MP shows KK, no ace appears, and Bert can watch the highlight show in peace.

Names notwithstanding, Al was someone else (I was button, and won the hand with 67s hitting a straight and a pair -- the pair would have been good enough). I was, of course, Bert.

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