Thursday, February 08, 2007

Running well.

I talked about running well, in the physical sense, yesterday. At the tables, I've also been on a good run lately, and posting about it doesn't seem to have invoked the doomswitch yet, so I figure that I must be in Al's good books at the moment, and will carry on reporting it. Last night's episode was a single table $10+1 SNG on Stars. My first impression, at the lower blind levels was that it played much more tightly than a $5.50. But, sample size is small, and once the blinds had escalated a bit, there wasn't any real difference.

Testing the waters, at 10/20, I raised to 60 from MP with J9 suited. The BB called, and checked the T96 rainbow flop. I bet 90 into the 130 pot, and collected it. Still at 10/20, limped 99 UTG+1. Three call, flop is 872 rainbow, and a bet of 80 into the 90 pot takes it down.

The first really significant hand of the evening came when I had KK in MP. With the blinds at 10/20, UTG raises to 60. One caller in front of me, and I reraise to 180. Both call. Hmmm ... KK in position, can't be bad. Things got better on a KT8 two tone flop. Two checks to me, and I made the mandatory half pot “continuation bet”. UTG folds, but the other guy calls. Turn is a 5, putting two flush draws on the board. As my stack is now less than the pot, I push over his check, and he calls, having flopped bottom set. No one-outer on the river for him. Can you get away from this cooler? I don't think I can, though I might have been tempted to lead the flop and I hope that I would at least have had a think about it if raised. An early double up in a one table SNG is very very nice. If nothing else, I tend to concentrate harder afterwards in order to avoid the embarassment of not cashing from such a dominant position.

For better than a full orbit I didn't get any cards that even tempted me to play them. I wasn't sitting on my lead, far from it, I was just not willing to invest chips with the sort of rubbish I was getting. For the record, with a large stack early, I tend to mentally assign a certain portion of it for “speculative” limps or raises, particularly with position. This is as much for image building as anything else, portraying me as looser and more passive than I actually am, but of course occasionally one does hit the flop hard with these hands, and then can often win huge pots with well disguised monsters.

My first opportunity for further action came at 25/50 with AQ offsuit on the button. Except, UTG(1170), who'd been tight, raised to 200. All folded to me, and, like the wuss I really am, I folded too. There would be better places to take a stand. Interesting point here -- my memory of this hand was that there had been action in two places in front of me, but the cold hard facts don't lie. Amazing how our brains try to sugarcoat the truth. Reviewing this hand now with PokerStove, if UTG's range is AQ+, 88+ then I definitely have the worst of it in terms of the expressed odds (200 into 275). If I include AJ it becomes marginal, and if I include KQ then the immediate odds are ok. However, my implied odds are not very good despite holding position, since on an A high flop, if UTG doesn't hold an A, he's not likely to pay off much, while if he does, I may be the one doing the paying off. Even a Q high flop could be trouble for me. I'm not proud of my fold, but it doesn't make me sick either.

Three hands later I was dealt AA. UTG limped, and I raised to 150. All folded, except UTG who called. Flop came AT6 rainbow, and UTG checked. Given my previous betting patterns a check here would be very suspicious, so I put in the usual half pot bet, and he folded. C'est la vie. Very next hand I limped 44 and took down a three way pot on the hammer-friendly 772 flop. Good thing it wasn't a blogger table. We're still 8 handed as the blinds move to 50/100. I take down a few pots first in preflop, sometimes with hands, sometimes not.

Then, I manage a big suckout. In late position I open with a raise to 300 holding KQ suited. The button calls. On a Q93 two tone flop, I bet 500 into the 750 pot, to put the button all in. Holding KK he doesn't have much difficulty with his call. But RiverStars obliges with a Q on the river, and I move up to 4500 chips.

Down to 6 handed at 75/150 I (4700) pick up KQ offsuit in the cutoff. I limp over one limper (1400), and the flop comes JT9 rainbow. The limper bets 300 into the pot and I just call. The turn is a 7, and he bets 300 again. I raise to 1000, which would put him all in, but he folds. C'est domage. I really thought the raise here had a better chance of being called, than would a bet on the river, but perhaps I shoud have given him the chance to catch something.

Four handed, I tried a steal from the button with Q3, and was raised all in for 2000 chips by the BB. Fold. I was tending to get walks in my BB, so there wasn't a lot of pressure to get busy, except to maintain chip position with respect to the rest of the field. As a result, when we hit the money, I'd (4600) drifted out of the chip lead (6700), with a short stack (1850) in the action as well. The short stack played very passively at this point, which made no sense at all. Within a few orbits he'd drifted down to 1000 chips. To be fair, I wasn't making any progress myself during this period. Then, I raised UTG with K9, he called all in with A2, and I hit my king. So, we're heads up -- me with 5700, against 7800.

Second hand of heads up play, I get 93 offsuit in the SB. My raise is called. I hit two pair on the 943 flop, and check over his check. He bets on the turn (2), I just call, then reraise all in on the river (T). He calls with 97. He still has 3000 chips but goes on tilt, all in every hand from then on. If I wanted to, I'd interpret this as a compliment -- in a -EV gambler's ruin situation, your optimal strategy is to risk as much as possible on each event. After a few rounds of folding, I finally choose to call a push over my SB raise with Q2 suited. I had decided to guess that he might not push with a real hand, and was happy to discover that either my guess was right or I was lucky. He had T7 -- I won the hand with a meaningless flush as he'd never improved.

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