Sit 'n fold

There's certainly a lot of bridge reading to catch up on, or rather to review, as I've yet to acquire any new books. Regardless, it's left little time for poker. But, I had an hour or so to spare with a stew in the oven, as well as some radio listening to catch up on, so I fired up a turbo SNG.

It seems to me that more people are catching on to the "tight early" strategy, which is a bit worrisome. No one was eliminated from this one until the blinds were 50/100. There were a couple of fairly loose players, but they were sticking to small ball and handing chips around among themselves.

Stayed in my usual shell, including folding AQ suited on the button with a raise and reraise in front of me (the reraiser eventually took down the pot after the flop, so I don't know whether or not I was right). Then got AQ suited again UTG at 15/30. A raise to 100 brought two of the loose players and one other along. So, I felt I had to bet out (300) on the A63 rainbow flop. The two loosies dropped, but the other fellow called. Seemed AJ, AT (maybe), AQ (possible), and AK (unlikely) were his probable hands (or I was near dead to a set). I checked the 5 on the turn, and he bet a ridiculous 120 into a 1045 pot. I called (figuring I was ahead, but aiming to control the pot size just in case) and we both checked the 9 on the river, with my AQ just squeaking out his AJ.

Time for the turtle to pull his head in again. At 25/50 I was forced into a call preflop with T7 suited, a min raise and two callers in front. No joy on the flop, so that was that.

Down to 8 at 50/100 and I got 99 UTG+1. My raise (300) was called by the BB only (one of the loosies and down just under 1000). The 987 rainbow flop looked pretty good to me. He checked, I bet half pot, he pushed, I called, he showed A7. Sweet. Until the board straightened on the turn and river. Sigh.

Tried a steal with 87 suited on the button. Big blind called. I followed when he checked the A42 rainbow flop, and he folded. What an easy game. More folding ensued as we approached the bubble. AT suited in the BB, the SB completed, I raised, he folded.

On the bubble, I'm second in chips with 2300! We have a monster stack, and a 1900 and 1300. Still need to concentrate.

Again I try to steal (at 75/150) from the SB with 74 suited. The BB calls, and the flop is A73 rainbow. I check, intending to fold, but he checks. The turn brings another 7. I bet a suspicious looking "conserving my stack" 350 into the 900 pot. He pushes. I call -- he has 55. We're in the money!

At 100/200 I get AQ in the SB with the button raising. My push sends him packing. I take a bigger hit than necessary with KJ offsuit on the button. My raise is called by the BB. Flop comes AKQ two diamonds. He checks, I bet, he calls. For some reason on the 9 of diamonds turn I feel the need to bet again -- he calls. The river is a truly ugly 6 of diamonds, and I have none of those. He pushes, I fold, leaving myself with about 1700 chips (against 9000 and 2800).

I squeak into second when the big stack pushes over a raise from the button, and is called. They race, TT against KQ and TT holds up.

So, we start heads up with me outchipped by about 8:1. I push J9 offsuit on the first hand, called by 72 offsuit (sorry, this wasn't a blogger game, so that just can't be right ...) Two nines on the flop, and I can hear destiny calling. We trade small pots for a while and then I win a race (22 vs KQ) so the chips are almost even.

Well anyhow, we bounced around for a while as one does, and then with stacks almost even agian at 200/400/25 I got 66 in the BB. He completed, I pushed and he called with K7 suited in spades. A race, but a pretty bad call in my opinion (I suspect a "let's get this over with" call). The flop had a 6 for me, but two spades for him. And the turn completed his flush.

Perhaps that wasn't destiny calling, but a siren. Oh, ye of little faith. The board duly paired on the river, and I mopped up his few remaining chips (less than 2BB) with A9 v 32 on the next hand.

How to win at Sit and Gos

This morning, having an hour to kill before the kick off of the event of which we will never speak again (la, la, la, la, ..., I can't heeeeaaaaarrrrrr you!), and not being willing to watch the pregame show without some diversion, I fired up a turbo Sit and Go on Stars. Which I won. And as a result of which, I can now share the three word secret to winning at Sit and Gos:

Be a luckbox.

I had no hands in the early levels, and we were well into the 75/150 level before the first elimination at the table occurred. Down to 1200 chips I then picked up KK in the cutoff. All folded to me, and with a small stack in the SB I decided to try a minimum raise for tactical reasons (and, because anyone who had just seen me fold a zillion hands in a row would be unlikely to call anything else). The SB came along (he had less than a full call), and then the BB doubled my bet. I raised all in of course and was delighted to be facing KT in the SB and TT in the BB. No disasters on the board and I was up to 2,500 chips.

At 100/200 I got AA on the button. One limper in front, but he and the blinds folded to my raise to 600. So far, a fairly normal SnG. But, the card deadness returned.

I drifted down below 1500 again when I felt I needed to take a small stab at a paired flop in a blind v blind limpfest. Unfortunately, my co-blind had a flush draw and an ace and wasn't going anywhere.

On the bubble now, but truly on life support, with only 600 remaining after posting the SB, I pushed with A7 after two folds and collected the blinds and antes. And then the luckbox factor kicked in. On the next hand, from the button (200/400/25), I pushed with K4 suited. The small blind, A6 suited called. The flop came 578. The turn paired his ace. And the river two paired him, hitting my gutshot.

Pushed TT from UTG on the next hand, and collected blinds and antes. Suddenly, I was actually second in chips (but a long way back of first). Next hand, the bubble popped. UTG was all in for less than a full blind with KQ against my mighty 96. I paired, he didn't. Next, my A5 lost to the remaining small stack's A9 making me the small stack, but I returned the favour with A8 beating his A6, making a gratuitous full house. Split pot with my AK against the other big stack's A5 (double paired board, sigh.)

The small stack made his exit when his K2 suited couldn't beat the other player's T6 offsuit (Broadway straight on the river), and we settled down to heads up. With the blinds already at 300/600 it was basically a pushfest. After a few exchanges in his favour I was outchipped almost 3:1. But JT was good enough against A6 for a double up. Then, after drifting off a bit again, I essentially ended it with T9 against A7 despite a J73 flop. The T on the turn was nice, and the other one on the river, unnecessary, but even nicer.

It was then of course a formality that my 87 would win the next hand against T4 (all in for less than the BB preflop) despite a T64 flop. The 9 on the turn was surely inevitable. So, there we have it. Not actually as lucky as I remembered it, but I certainly won more than my share of 35-40% hands.

I wasn't finished, 99

The hand from yesterday's sit and go that stuck in my mind was the 99 hand from the button, three handed. I had a few comments about it from Fuel, and I also posted a thread on 2+2 which (amazingly) generated some sensible replies. So, here it is again, together with some summaries and further thoughts.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (3 handed) Hand History Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Hero (t3600)
SB (t4853)
BB (t6547)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9♦9♠.
Hero raises to t600, SB calls t500, 1 fold.

Flop: (t1400) K♣, 6♣, 5♠ (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t800, SB raises to t1600, Hero ???

As played

This is a difficult decision -- a simple call is out of the question, so it's fold or all in. Fold leaves 2200 chips behind, and of course all in has me playing for my tournament life (I can assume that the SB won't fold getting better than 3:1 odds). For geeks like me, at this stage of a sit and go you need to think about more than just chip equity -- you need to use the independent chip model. Fortunately (after the fact) there are handy calculators for this, and, using one of them, I can work out that we'd need to be winning the pot about 35% of the time for a shove at this point to be a break even move. As all my estimates are going to be rough ones, I'll take that as a guideline, possibly padding it a bit on the high side since I feel I have a bit of a skill advantage over my opponents (always!) so there's a premium on staying in the game.

If I'm already behind at this point (to a king, a pair tens or higher, or a set of 6's or 5's) I'm basically drawing to 2 outs and have 8% equity in the pot. If I'm ahead, my opponent likely has at least six outs (two overcards or underpair plus overcard), and possibly many more (flush draws, combo draws etc.) So my equity, if ahead, is something between 50% and 75%. Call it 70% for optimism.

Basically that suggests that I need to believe that I'm ahead a little less than 1/2 the time (if my estimates are correct and I'm ahead 1/2 the time then I have a 39% chance of winning).

As we know, at the time I folded, and I'm relatively happy with that. I don't think that my opponent's raise in this game, and under these circumstances, is a bluff or semi-bluff (or underpair) half the time.

Reflection

The main difficulty in the decision is caused by the fact that the bet sizing to this point left me in an all in or fold situation. There are two ways around this: bet more (i.e. everything) preflop; or bet less.

Shoving certainly merits consideration. If I assume a relatively tight calling range (true at the table I believe) of something like TT+, AJ+, KQ then I'll only get called about 1 time in 14 by either blind individually, so 1 time in 7 collectively. When I'm called my equity against that range is 33%. So, 18 times in 21 I'll gain 300 chips, 1 time in 21 gain a bit more than 3600, and 2 times in 21 lose 3600. The gains certainly outnumber the losses but ICM might have a bit to say about this (in fact it seems to suggest that pushing is about the same as folding preflop). But, the wider we make the opponents' calling range the happier we are.

What about the other approach? Limp and give up on all but the best of flops (containing a 9 or three low cards)? That seems a bit peculiar but perhaps worth considering if only to vary our play.

Finally, I think the winner is a smaller preflop raise. For the sake of argument let's look at a raise to 400 i.e. 2BB and suppose the hand plays out similarly to the original example. The SB calls, then checks. I bet 500 into a 900 pot and he raises to 1000. The pot is now 2400, and I still have 2700 behind. A push at this point actually leaves me in effectively the same position we discussed originally but probably has some fairly significant fold equity -- including folding a number of hands that beat us at present (e.g. TT, JJ, KQ, possibly KJ). Furthermore, some drawing hands that would have been able to call correctly originally are now not getting the correct odds.

Conclusion

In short handed games with an intermediate stack (15-20 BB) and a decent, but not premium hand on the button, consider a smaller than normal preflop raise.

It's been a while

Since I played any sit and go's, and of course a bit longer since I won one. But tonight, the $25 tables all looked extremely rocky (last night of a holiday weekend in N. America -- I guess everyone had had enough, or gone to bed early for work tomorrow). So, with the Antique Roadshow in the background, I fired up a couple of the one table $3.40 turbos on Stars.

Exited in a coinflip in 7th place on one (my tens against AK). But, the other went relatively well...

Did my usual lurk between 1000 and 1300 chips as the first few players busted out, and then as the blinds went up entered pushbot mode. At 100/200 with four players remaining I was down to 800 chips in the BB with Q8s, and the SB just completed. I thought about pushing, but chose to see a flop -- AKQ rainbow, with one card in my suit. The SB led for 200 into the pot and I decided that an ace would certainly have raised preflop, and a king might have. Besides, a king would have a hard time calling a push here. On top of all that was the quite reasonable possibility that his bet was a simple bluff. So I pushed, and collected a bit of breathing room when he folded. I actually think that this was the critical hand for me

Next hand I had KQo in the SB, folded to me. I pushed (7BB) of course and picked up another 200 bringing me to 1600. And then, the very next hand, with perfect timing, I got AA on the button. I pushed again, and sure enough one of the blinds decided that I'd really lost it and called -- to be fair, he was the big stack and had KQo so not such a ridiculous call.

We burst the bubble when someone else tried to play AA -- SB completed, the BB with AA raised to 3BB, SB called. On a 762 flop the SB pushed, and the BB called. Well ahead of 87o, he unfortunately lost to the runner runner straight.

Next button I had 99. But, with 18BB to my name now, too much to push. I put in a standard raise, called by the SB. The flop was a two tone K65. He checked, I bet 800 into the 1400 pot and he min-raised. I folded. I'm not sure about this bet -- perhaps I should just try to get out of the hand cheaply. Down to 11BB, and definitely the smallest of the three stacks.

I got lucky when one big stack took his two paired 63o up against a slow played set of aces belonging to the other big stack. He tilt pushed on the next hand with K5 offsuit (actually with 8BB on the button, not at all a ridiculous push), and I found 99 in the BB and cleaned him up.

So, I entered heads up play at a 7:2 chip disadvantage. After 35 hands the positions were reversed. After 40 they were back to the original. Fought back to even, then back down again at 48 hands. On this hand my opponent raised (as he had been doing very aggressively) from the SB for about half my stack. With K6 offsuit, I felt I had a marginal overpush and did. He called with 87 suited, hit a 7 on the flop, but I was rescued by a king on the river. From there I hit a few flop and pushed up to a 4:1 chip advantage.

After 56 hands, an eternity in a turbo sit and go, it was all over, as I took the final hand in a coinflip with 55 vs Q7.

Turbo two

Finally completed my second set of twenty single table turbo sng's (11 at $3.40, 9 at $6.50).

ROI: 35%
ITM: 45% (5/11, 4/9)

Cumulative ROI is 54%.

Next set is 6 at $3.40, 14 at $6.50 (pocketing half the winnings as usual).

This time around I wasn't freerolling until the final two. I've got a general impression that the games are definitely tightening up, though perhaps my time zone selection wasn't as good. In my sole 10th place finish this set, the blinds were already at 75/150! I also have a feeling that I was relatively unlucky over this set -- more so than I usually feel when luck has in fact been normal. In particular I seemed to lose a lot of consecutive coinflips. Not going to make much of that though.

DON'T PANIC

We all carry with us certain extremely strong memes. To most of them our parents say “Call that a meme? Why in my day we had real memes, not these namby pamby memes you see nowadays.” Come to think of that, our children say much the same thing too. But I digress.

One of my memes has The Hitchiker's Guide to the Galaxy at its centre. And it's a very lucky meme to have, because it contains two words of invaluable advice (as well as a lot of other very funny, albeit a bit silly, words --- “42” Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!)

Of course those words are (in case you haven't guessed)

DON'T PANIC

And it's very important that they should be in upper case like that.

Excellent advice for almost any situation that you might encounter in life, but recently I've become increasingly aware of just how important this advice is for single table turbo sit and gos. Let me repeat:

DON'T PANIC

Your M is 3 and there are still six players left? DON'T PANIC
Oh it's 2 now? DON'T PANIC
You're about to be all in in the big blind? DON'T PANIC

But above all, DON'T PANIC.

I started my second set of 20 turbos tonight with a $3.40 and a $6.50 (unlike other forms of poker, your performance in a turbo SNG will probably be enhanced if you multitable and listen to some music or radio on the side.)

Let's just walk through one of them with a couple of words in mind. Which words? Oh, grow up.

($3.40) Fold ten hands. Blinds are now 25/50 and two players are already out. You get 99 in the BB. A limp from EP, and the button pushes 125. You raise to 300, taking out the limper, and beat his 43 suited. Can anyone tell me what he did wrong? I knew you could.

Fold another 13 hands, you're in the BB again, we're up to 75/150 and only six players are left. You get A♦Q♦. All fold to the SB who completes. You raise to 500 and he folds. Are you upset not to win more on the hand? Relax -- DON ... oh never mind.

Ok, three hands later, only 5 remaining now. You get A8 offsuit in the cutoff. You raise to 450, and the BB who covers you pushes. DON'T PANIC. Just fold. What? You're worried that you're down to 1200 chips and are the short stack? You don't want to be pushed around by the BB? That's ok, you'll get it back so long as you DON'T PANIC.

Fold your way through the blinds. We're at 100/200 now, still 5 left, you're on the button. You get A♠7♠. UTG calls, and the cut off min raises. You have been paying attention right? He's got nothing. You push your paltry 970 chips in and are far from surprised to find him holding A5 offsuit. Now your hand has to hold up, but there's nothing you can do about that. It does. You move into fourth place.

Comes the next BB, still at 100/200 and you get A♥K♠. The SB completes, you raise to 600 (you had 2440 to start -- push is possible, and perhaps better, that's ok, you're allowed a few mistakes so long as you DON'T PANIC) and he calls. Flop comes QJ8 and he bets 400 into a 1200 pot. Genuinely tough, perhaps you should fold, but, getting 4:1 you call (push is an option, but has a hint of that bad five letter word that begins pan about it). Turn is a 7 and he pushes. Fold. Oops, down to 1440 and back in fifth place again.

You get A9 on the button, push over one limper, and gain 500 chips. 33, UTG, push and pick up another 300. You get K4 offsuit in the BB. You get to play it for nothing. Time to put the rest of the players on your Christmas card list, especially when the flop comes 844. Check, check, check. Hurrah, the turn is an ace, and the SB leads for 600. You call (time to be a bit greedy). The river is a king! He bets 600 again, you push your remaining 1340 into the pot, and he folds. Heavens. Sure you were exceptionally lucky here -- but you were still here to be lucky. Why? Oh figure it out for yourself.

Next you pick up QQ in the SB. The button, steam coming out of his ears from the last hand, raises to 800. You push, he calls with QT. Good heavens. Suddenly, on the bubble you're the dominating chip leader.

I'll just stop there (no, not because I suddenly fell apart and went out on the bubble -- I won, but the remainder is not nearly so instructive or amusing.) I could tell virtually the same story about the $6.50 (2nd), but I suspect that I've tried your patience already.

Will this wondrous advice still work as well at higher levels? Probably not, but I'll be very surprised if it's not of some use.

Sick

Just finished my first set of 20 single table turbo sit and goes. These were all $3.40's on Stars. In the money, 60%. Return on investment, 81%. That's sick and unsustainable, but I can't deny it's nice. Breakdown by position: 1st (4), 2nd (5), 3rd (3), 4th (1), 5th-7th (6), 8th-10th (1).

Being a wuss, I'm banking half my profit, and putting the rest back into the next set, which will therefore consist of 11 $3.40's, and 9 $6.50's. I used my mad Excel skillz to randomise the order that I'll play them in (I couldn't find a deck of cards to pull out 11 reds and 9 blacks, which would have been easier.)

Did I learn much from the first set? Not a lot, other than that the play at these is very very very bad indeed. But, it's not always the same kind of bad, so exploiting it isn't entirely trivial. Table characteristics do seem to depend on time of day/week, though I wasn't recording that data so it's purely anecdotal (and in any case the sample is far too small to be drawing conclusions from).

There was one very interesting hand in the last one of these that I played:

Blinds at 25/50, three players have been eliminated (it was a very active table).

UTG+1, I (2950) have A♣T♦. I'd often fold this hand, but down to seven handed, raised it to 150. My immediate neighbour (2950) called, which meant absolutely nothing. The SB (1400) also called.

Flop A♠K♣5♠. SB bets 200 into a 500 pot, which smells like a flush draw (or maybe a king). I call, awaiting developments, and my neighbour calls as well.

Turn is the T♣. SB bets 200 again making the pot 1300. I raise to 800. My neighbour calls. The SB folds.

River is a very nasty K♦ counterfeiting my second pair. I check, and my neighbour goes all in. We started with identical chip counts, so I'm faced with calling 1800 into a 4700 pot.

I've marked him as a lunatic and he's made big bets on a number of previous hands with very little. Against that, I'm calling to a chop against any worse ace, a loss against AJ or AQ, and a loss against any K or QJ. Basically, I'm only beating air (or a busted spade draw).

I folded. Thoughts?

Postscript: After the hand, there was some cursing from the SB (to his credit he kept quiet until then), which leads me to think he had a K. And I went on to win.

Twilight turbo's

I've rediscovered the joys of single table turbo sit and go's. And their frustrations too of course, but that practically goes without saying. So, submitted for your consideration:

(50/100) A9 offsuit on the button, 1300 chips, 7 players remaining. One limp in front, I raise to 500, BB who covers me pushes. I forget to be wary of the wrath of Hoy and call. Twilight zone indeed (he had TT -- I didn't suck out).

(10/20) A8 suited in MP, 1500 chips, 10 players remaining. I open limp (doo doo doo doo, doo doo doo doo), the button calls, the SB folds, the BB check. Flop is Q95 with two of my suit. BB min bets. I make a huge mistake and just call. Button calls. Turn is an Ace. BB min bets again. I make a slightly smaller mistake and bet 90, leaving the button to call 90 into a 240 pot. He does, as does the BB. River is an 8 giving me two pair. I bet 200 into the 400 pot, button pushes. With a flick of my long ears, I call. Of course he has JT - what else could it be?

On the positive side, I think that had I made those two obvious folds it's quite likely I would have been in the money in five out of five of these suckers.

Haven't mentioned radio for a while. Fighting Talk continues to be a favourite, as does Definitely Not the Opera which is absolutely superb.

That SNG

Just reviewed the hands from the SNG I mentioned in my previous post and really some further comment is required.

Summary:

I won chips in five hands (details below); I lost the blinds in 23 hands; I lost more than the blinds in two hands.

My two losses:

Blinds 10/20, I (1500) have TT under the gun, and limp. UTG+1 raises to 80, one player in LP calls, as do I. On a 773 flop I bet 150 into the 270 pot, UTG+1 min raises. I fold. Weak? I guess so.

Blinds 75/150, three handed I (1440) am in the BB with J♦7♦. The SB (7000) raises to 300. I call. Flop is JT9 with one diamond. The SB bets 300 into the 600 pot. I push, he calls with 86 offsuit, and hits his open ender with a 7 on the turn. No resuck for me and IGH.

My five wins:

(15/30) Get a free play from the BB with T5 offsuit in a four way limped pot. Flop is Q55. I check, first limper bets pot, two folds. I min-raise. He folds. Maybe should have tried to milk this one a bit more with a flat call.

(25/50) I'm (1300) in the BB with AJ offsuit. One limper, and the SB completes. I raise to 250. The limper (4000) calls, the SB folds. Flop is 994, with a backdoor to my J. I push, he folds.

(50/100) Won a battle of the blinds with J8 in the BB on an 852 flop (he folded to a min bet).

(50/100) Three handed(!) pushed for 1020 UTG on A5 suited. All fold.

(75/150) I (900) have QJ in the BB (three handed). UTG (5000) bets 450, I push, he calls with KJ. I suck out.

What a difference a day makes

They're installing some new fibre optic cabling in our building (of course, we've finally been given new space to move to later this year, and now they're getting around to upgrading our network, but I digress), and one of the junction boxes is in my office, as a result of which there was much moving of desks, drilling of holes etc.

I took this as a sign that I could leave work early. It was a beautiful, crisp, early autumn day, so I went for a run through St. Kilda and St. Clair. Tide was high, and I couldn't run on the beach.

After I showered, I put together a French style stew for dinner (I'd call it boeuf en daube, but that would be pretentious), and left it cooking as I sat down to two tables of 25NL. Got up again a total of 100 hands later, $30 to the good.

Had stopped in at the university library earlier in the day, so I did some reading on Zen, Edmund Wilson's autobiography, and a bit of Evelyn Waugh, while in the background Delia Smith chattered away about traditional British puddings.

Folded my way into third place in a SNG. Knocked out in a bad beat, but was severely short stacked in any case. Even with a double up I would have been the short stack.

Put on the potatoes to cook, and donked it up a bit at low stakes triple draw, where I ran into somebody slumming.

Enjoyed my dinner. Read some more.

Oh yeah, there was still a bit of bad television.

How low can you go?

Found myself deep in a foulie yesterday. The usual cures are:

• exercise, but a howling southerly was blowing;
• a decent meal, but I had leftovers that needed to be finished up; or
  
• a good book, but I've read The Fourth Bear four times in the last two months, and I certainly wasn't in the mood to go to the library.
  

So I played some poker instead. This is not a recognised cure for a foulie.

I realised relatively quickly, and with remarkable good sense under the circumstances, that the cash tables were not a good place to be, since one symptom of the mood was a fatalistic need to call any and all bets with any sort of a piece of the flop. So, I found the lowest buy in multi-table SNG's available, popped a couple up on the screen and went at it, starting new ones as necessary.

In the money? A predictable 0%.

Exit hands?

• KJ v min-raised AA on KQT flop (37/45)
  
• AT 9BB push, called by 99 (6/18)
  
• AT 8BB push, called by 88 (16/45)
  
• AJ 9BB push, called by QJ (7/18)
  

At which point the dubious pleasures of that exercise palled, and I retreated to the last resort at such times, bad television.

Nothing to see here

Terrible day yesterday at both sit and gos, and multi-table tournaments. Largely of my own doing. Then I won all my losses back, and then some, in half an hour of cash play. I really wish that I found cash play more interesting, it's certainly a lot more lucrative.

Just to show how poorly I was playing (and to check out some new suit symbol codes I just discovered), here's a very early hand of one of the sit and gos:

In the SB I'm dealt 6♢6♣. Five players limp, I complete, the BB checks. Flop is J♠T♠6♡. I bet 80 into the 140 pot. How lame is that on such a coordinated board? I either need to overbet the pot, or try and get in a big check raise. Everybody calls. Pot is now 700. Turn is the 9♢. I bet 400 into the 700 pot. That's my second mistake at least, since I must be beaten at this point. Certainly, I should check and hope to see a free or cheap river which might pair the board. This time, I get one call, and then the button pushes all in. Mortified with my play to this point, and aiming to punish myself for it, I call (mistake number 3). He shows Q♢8♣. The board fails to pair on the river. and I'm left with 10 chips, which I actually manage to work up to 150 before busting out.

Wow, at least three mistakes in one hand (arguably I might have raised pre-flop). And so it went.

Bustouts

Played two MTT's and two SNG's (two table) last night. Here are my bustout hands (you'll notice that there are four, from which you may draw the obvious inference). Some commentary included, but I'd appreciate your thoughts as well.

($2.20 MTT, 1000+ entrants) Blinds at 100/200, about 250 players remaining, I (2100) have A♥K♥ UTG. I could, and perhaps should, push but choose to raise to 800, viewing myself as pot-committed (I must remember to post sometime about how choosing a line of play in advance can mean that you're not subjected to “pressure points” and when/where this might be a viable strategy). Only the BB (3000) calls. Flop comes AQJ rainbow, he pushes, I call, he has QJ. No help.

Should I have been scared off by the push on what must seem to him a very dangerous board?

($5.50 MTT, 360 entrants) Blinds at 100/200/25, 90 players remaining, I (2400) have Q♦5♦ in the SB. All fold to me, I raise to 600, called by the BB (6000). Flop is T53 rainbow, I push, he has KT, calls. No help.

The call doesn't mean much beyond at least one high card. Second pair, heads up?

($1.75 turbo SNG, 18 entrants) Blinds at 100/200, 7 players remaining. In the SB, I (4200) get KK. UTG (4400) raises to 800, and a LP player (6800) pushes over top. I call of course, UTG folds. LP has AJ offsuit, and hits an ace.

Just another bad beat.

($1.75 turbo SNG, 18 entrants) Blinds at 600/1200/75, 3 remaining. Button (8000) folds. I (7700 after posting) have J6 offsuit in the SB. BB (9200 after posting) has been calling a lot. I complete, he checks. Flop is QJ2 double suited. I bet 1200, he raises to 2400, I push, he calls and shows J9. Kickers play.

Can I find the fold to the raise of my bet? Heads up am I supposed to check middle pair and then fold?

Running well.

I talked about running well, in the physical sense, yesterday. At the tables, I've also been on a good run lately, and posting about it doesn't seem to have invoked the doomswitch yet, so I figure that I must be in Al's good books at the moment, and will carry on reporting it. Last night's episode was a single table $10+1 SNG on Stars. My first impression, at the lower blind levels was that it played much more tightly than a $5.50. But, sample size is small, and once the blinds had escalated a bit, there wasn't any real difference.

Testing the waters, at 10/20, I raised to 60 from MP with J9 suited. The BB called, and checked the T96 rainbow flop. I bet 90 into the 130 pot, and collected it. Still at 10/20, limped 99 UTG+1. Three call, flop is 872 rainbow, and a bet of 80 into the 90 pot takes it down.

The first really significant hand of the evening came when I had KK in MP. With the blinds at 10/20, UTG raises to 60. One caller in front of me, and I reraise to 180. Both call. Hmmm ... KK in position, can't be bad. Things got better on a KT8 two tone flop. Two checks to me, and I made the mandatory half pot “continuation bet”. UTG folds, but the other guy calls. Turn is a 5, putting two flush draws on the board. As my stack is now less than the pot, I push over his check, and he calls, having flopped bottom set. No one-outer on the river for him. Can you get away from this cooler? I don't think I can, though I might have been tempted to lead the flop and I hope that I would at least have had a think about it if raised. An early double up in a one table SNG is very very nice. If nothing else, I tend to concentrate harder afterwards in order to avoid the embarassment of not cashing from such a dominant position.

For better than a full orbit I didn't get any cards that even tempted me to play them. I wasn't sitting on my lead, far from it, I was just not willing to invest chips with the sort of rubbish I was getting. For the record, with a large stack early, I tend to mentally assign a certain portion of it for “speculative” limps or raises, particularly with position. This is as much for image building as anything else, portraying me as looser and more passive than I actually am, but of course occasionally one does hit the flop hard with these hands, and then can often win huge pots with well disguised monsters.

My first opportunity for further action came at 25/50 with AQ offsuit on the button. Except, UTG(1170), who'd been tight, raised to 200. All folded to me, and, like the wuss I really am, I folded too. There would be better places to take a stand. Interesting point here -- my memory of this hand was that there had been action in two places in front of me, but the cold hard facts don't lie. Amazing how our brains try to sugarcoat the truth. Reviewing this hand now with PokerStove, if UTG's range is AQ+, 88+ then I definitely have the worst of it in terms of the expressed odds (200 into 275). If I include AJ it becomes marginal, and if I include KQ then the immediate odds are ok. However, my implied odds are not very good despite holding position, since on an A high flop, if UTG doesn't hold an A, he's not likely to pay off much, while if he does, I may be the one doing the paying off. Even a Q high flop could be trouble for me. I'm not proud of my fold, but it doesn't make me sick either.

Three hands later I was dealt AA. UTG limped, and I raised to 150. All folded, except UTG who called. Flop came AT6 rainbow, and UTG checked. Given my previous betting patterns a check here would be very suspicious, so I put in the usual half pot bet, and he folded. C'est la vie. Very next hand I limped 44 and took down a three way pot on the hammer-friendly 772 flop. Good thing it wasn't a blogger table. We're still 8 handed as the blinds move to 50/100. I take down a few pots first in preflop, sometimes with hands, sometimes not.

Then, I manage a big suckout. In late position I open with a raise to 300 holding KQ suited. The button calls. On a Q93 two tone flop, I bet 500 into the 750 pot, to put the button all in. Holding KK he doesn't have much difficulty with his call. But RiverStars obliges with a Q on the river, and I move up to 4500 chips.

Down to 6 handed at 75/150 I (4700) pick up KQ offsuit in the cutoff. I limp over one limper (1400), and the flop comes JT9 rainbow. The limper bets 300 into the pot and I just call. The turn is a 7, and he bets 300 again. I raise to 1000, which would put him all in, but he folds. C'est domage. I really thought the raise here had a better chance of being called, than would a bet on the river, but perhaps I shoud have given him the chance to catch something.

Four handed, I tried a steal from the button with Q3, and was raised all in for 2000 chips by the BB. Fold. I was tending to get walks in my BB, so there wasn't a lot of pressure to get busy, except to maintain chip position with respect to the rest of the field. As a result, when we hit the money, I'd (4600) drifted out of the chip lead (6700), with a short stack (1850) in the action as well. The short stack played very passively at this point, which made no sense at all. Within a few orbits he'd drifted down to 1000 chips. To be fair, I wasn't making any progress myself during this period. Then, I raised UTG with K9, he called all in with A2, and I hit my king. So, we're heads up -- me with 5700, against 7800.

Second hand of heads up play, I get 93 offsuit in the SB. My raise is called. I hit two pair on the 943 flop, and check over his check. He bets on the turn (2), I just call, then reraise all in on the river (T). He calls with 97. He still has 3000 chips but goes on tilt, all in every hand from then on. If I wanted to, I'd interpret this as a compliment -- in a -EV gambler's ruin situation, your optimal strategy is to risk as much as possible on each event. After a few rounds of folding, I finally choose to call a push over my SB raise with Q2 suited. I had decided to guess that he might not push with a real hand, and was happy to discover that either my guess was right or I was lucky. He had T7 -- I won the hand with a meaningless flush as he'd never improved.

Second is the new first

Or it felt that way, after my performance in a $5.50 SNG last night. I did finish second, and almost achieved this distinction without ever having more chips than I began with. In fact, my maximum chip count was 1510, a dizzying height which I reached twice, both times required to pay the SB on the next hand. In 82 hands: my best A was AT (seven hands total with an ace); I had two broadway cards five times; and my only pair was 33 (once). It appears that, while you may need some cards to win, you don't need them to finish second.

Let's just have a quick look at all the pots I was actively involved in:

(10/20) Overlimp on the button with 33, fold on AT5 flop.
(10/20) Attempt to overlimp in LP with KJs, SB makes it 100, take a slightly speculative call. Fold on Q42 flop.
(25/50, 8 remaining, 1260) Note the entire missing level. Raise to 150 with KQ offsuit in middle position. All fold.
(25/50) See a free flop from BB with 93 offsuit. Bet 100 into 150 pot on a two tone K92 flop. Small stack goes in for an extra 80. Call, expecting to see a king, but he has a 9 with better kicker (8). Down to 1105.
(50/100, 7 remaining, 830) Push from the cutoff with 87 suited. Collect the blinds. A knockout a few hands later lets me miss the BB. I love PokerStars.
(75/150, 5 remaining, 705) Push from the cutoff with AT offsuit. Collect the blinds.
(100/200, 5 remaining) After paying the BB I have only 505 behind. The button (2K) calls and I have A4 suited. I push, he calls, and I win over QJ offsuit (A on the flop). Up to 1510, over my starting stack. But I have to pay the SB next. The situation is actually not too bad as there is a huge stack just to my left, who is not very aggressive, and the remaining stacks are all under 2K as well.
(100/200, 5 remaining) Free ride in the BB with T9 offsuit. Would I have called? We'll never know.
(100/200, 5 remaining) We hit the bubble as UTG minraises with AA and the monster stack in the SB calls with Q7 offsuit. Flop is 776, and not surprisingly UTG gets stacked. What's that about slow playing aces?
(100/200, 4 remaining) I get a ride in the BB again!
(100/200, 4 remaining) Bubble bursts when 1K stack on the button pushes with A7 offsuit, only to find the monster stack in the BB with aces.
(100/200, 3 remaining) Oops. Try a steal (fortunately not an all in push), with 32 offsuit in an attempt to get some breathing room over the other small stack who is currently sitting out. Monster stack calls, and I have no choice but to check it down, as he's calling any further bet from me. He bets on the river, and I gratefully fold unimproved. Down to 710.
(100/200, 3 remaining) Other small stack goes all in from the BB with JJ. Monster stack in the SB who'd only completed, calls with Q5 and duly collects a Q.

Heads up (1200 vs 12K) lasted all of two hands. I pushed K6 from the small blind, and was called by A7.

The Endeavour or the Titanic?

Nothing quite like trying to complete a grant application under time pressure to sharpen up ones skills at procrastination ...

There's been a bit of recent talk in the poker blogiverse about "floating" (and I'm sorry, I neither have, nor can find the links). Like a lot of poker terms there seems to be some debate (not always civilised) over the precise meaning of the verb "to float", but certainly one of the accepted senses is a call made with the intention of bluffing on a later round.

Defending against a possible float is tough, particularly without reads. The difficulty comes from trying to distinguish between a float, a slow play, and sometimes a draw that has hit. That's precisely why the float, used judiciously, is such an effective move of course.

Here's an illustrative hand that happened in my first return to the hold'em world after the holiday season. First hand of a two table turbo SNG. Buy in small enough that you won't be short of money for the groceries if you bust out, and indeed the cost of your two minutes of entertainment won't be far above that of playing on an unfamiliar arcade game (speaking of which, does anybody actually play arcade games anymore?)

Anyhow, blinds are 10/20, and UTG you get T♦T♠. For no particularly good, nor particularly bad, reason, you open with a raise to 80. All fold, except the SB who calls.

The flop is a very ragged J♠7♦3♠. The SB checks, you bet 120 into the 180 pot, and the SB calls. This seems like a good point to formulate a plan for the rest of the hand. Whatever plan you might have formulated though will probably require some reconsideration, because the turn is 10♣ giving you a set.

Again the SB checks, and, despite the straight possibilities, you bet 200 into the 420 pot, and, to nobodies great surprise, the SB simply calls.

The river is the 8♦, putting J♠10♣8♦7♦3♠ on the board, and this time the SB varies his play by going all in for his last 1100 chips. Of course, calling this will put you all in too. Do you?

At the table, I thought it a tight decision between calling or folding. I folded, in order to maximise my "entertainment value", possibly at the cost of more traditional EV. The SB didn't do me the favour of showing his hand, so I can't tell you whether or not my decision was correct. But, as I did go on to second place, it wasn't too bad!

Breaking my duck

(Readers who find the headline more than usually obscure will find an explanation at the end of the post.)

It was an odd weekend. Some sort of bizarre connectivity problem with my ISP meant that, while I was able to play online poker, I did not have access to the international web. So, no blogging, nor reading of blogs. I was dreading the accumulation on my bloglines this morning, but it turned out not to be as bad as I'd feared, I guess the American set were too overstuffed with turkey to have the mental energy to blog. More charitably, perhaps they were spending time with family. Anyhow ...

I've written before about my frustration with the $4.40/180 seat SNG's on PokerStars. I'd found the level of play there to be truly abysmal, but this didn't seem to be of any actual practical significance, since I didn't seem to be able to cash either. I almost decided to give them up entirely, but with the new tournament schedule having many fewer micro buy in MTT's, and with my lack of web connection ruling out the normally highly profitable single table SNG's, I put my name down for one again.

You claim to have spotted a non sequitur there? What does my lack of web connection have to do with not playing single table SNG's? I thought you'd never ask. I don't like to multitable when I'm playing a non-turbo SNG. On the other hand, I need some distraction, and my habit (which I now realise has become a prerequisite) is to listen to Internet radio, usually "listen again" broadcasts from BBC Radio 4, 5, or 7. By the way, if you have any interest in UK sport, and any sense of humour whatsoever, Fighting Talk is not to be missed. Ergo, lack of web connection means no single table sit and go's.

Well, the result was ... not so bad.

I had a feeling that it might be my day, when on the very first hand, I limped from MP with J♣8♣ (non standard for me later, but partly for image building reasons early), amazingly playing the hand only against the blinds. The flop of A♣Q♣9♣ was a thing of beauty, and when the SB completed his two pair with a 3♦ turn, I came out of the hand up 500 chips. If I'd known he had two pair, I would have bet more -- as it was I raised his river bet of 100 to only 300, which he called.

Then, in the same position in the second orbit, I picked up J♠8♠. Now, whether you believe in such things or not, it can't possibly be a good idea to spit an omen in the face, so I limped again, this time over two limpers in front, and again the blinds came along. Now the flop came 7♦9♥T♦. A limper in front of me bet 240, I raised to 600, and both blinds went all in. The limper dropped out, and I called expecting to see a set and a diamond draw, or perhaps pair plus open ended straight draw, but in fact found two diamond draws, A♦8♦ and Q♦T♦. No more diamonds or jacks arrived and I had essentially tripled up. I just checked this on PokerStove and am amazed that my equity was actually as high as 62% on the flop.

At the 50/100 level I think I played an AA hand too fast. UTG went all in for 500, which the cutoff(4500) called. I(4500) was on the button and pushed, losing the cutoff. It's a hand with some similarities to the one of Iakaris's that I discussed in "could do better". In retrospect I think that a smooth call, or min raise was in order, probably the latter for, while I'm happy to have the cutoff tag along, I don't really want the blinds to get the idea of making a relatively cheap call into a biggish pot.

All was not beer and skittles though, as I found myself short stacked twice in the "middle game" (from five tables, down to the paying two tables). In each case I wound up sucking out when my all in was called by a dominating hand. I didn't feel too badly about it, both because that kind of thing just has to happen, and also because the reason that I found myself short stacked in each case was due to similar hands going the other way. When the money bubble burst I was about 15th of 18 remaining. From there I had a pretty nice run of cards, flops hitting not so great cards, and (he modestly added) I think I outplayed my opponents.

The tournament ended after only a few hands of heads up play (three handed went on for ages). Blinds were at 2K/4K, and I was very slightly ahead in chips. In the BB I was dealt A♥K♠. My opponent min raised, and I simply called. The flop came A♠7♠4♠. I checked and my opponent bet the 16K pot. I read this as an ace, so unless he had two pair, I was ahead, and had the flush draw to fall back on. So I called. Turn was 3♣, I checked, and my opponent bet 40K. At this point I went all in, and he called with A6. No disaster on the river, and my duck was well and truly broken.

Breaking ones duck In cricket, if a batsman is out without having scored any runs he is said to have "made a duck" (or "scored a duck"), which is actually a contraction of "duck's egg" -- and hence if he gets out on the very first ball it's called a "golden duck". This is a rather embarrassing thing to have happen to a recognised batsman, as a decent batsman will average at least 30 runs per innings. Anyhow, as a result, when a batsman first scores any runs he is said to have "broken his duck". By extension, the expression now refers to obtaining some positive return for the first time from an endeavour, particularly if preceded by a period of frustration.

Cut off that button!

I'm waiting for the second All Blacks v. France test to begin in about half an hour's time. It had been my plan to go for a run first thing in the morning today, before the match, but it's raining and windy, and the forecast promises some improvement later in the day, so I've put that off. Well of course, a bit of early Sunday morning poker was called for, obviously, particularly as bloglines seems to be having some problems. So I fired up a couple of two table turbo S+G's on PokerStars.

Busted relatively early in one, when an attempt, with TT, to pick up about 250 in "dead money" in the form of limps and the BB with an all in from the SB backfired as one of the limpers had KK. The other, I eventually took second, hitting a massive run of cards at the first table including a triple up on the very first hand when I was able to limp K7s from late position and hit top and bottom pair on the flop, and various people decided to chase flush draws, more or less coasting to the money through some card deadness, and then picking up a few hands and making a few moves at the right time.

One situation arose at the first table which reminded me a bit of the hand I posted yesterday from Iak's great run.

Blinds are 50/100. I'm(7500) in the cutoff, folded to me with AA. I bet 300 (I'm one of those "always make the same raise" guys, except when I'm not). The button(600) calls(!), as does the SB(3500), who is the only other player at the table whose play I respect at this point (he went on to win). The BB folds.

Flop is JJ4 rainbow, and the SB checks. The pot is exactly 1000 at this point, and the question is how to size my bet. I decide to bet 1000. Predictably the button calls for his last 300, and then the SB goes all in. It would cost me 2200 to call, giving me about 2:1 odds. Following my plan, I folded at this point. Button had TT and SB had KJo (loose call initially -- perhaps my respect was not so well placed). An Ace came on the turn (of course) but I was happy with my play.

The issue is the sizing of the bet on the flop -- I wanted to bet enough that it would be a tempting target to the SB if he had a Jack, engendering an all in, but little enough, that I could fold to it with some confidence. Could I have saved a few hundred chips with a smaller bet? Perhaps. Interesting to think about all the possible options.

Even a check is not out of the question -- anticipating an all in from the button for her last 300 chips, and then trying to read the SB's response to that. Betting exactly enough to put the button all in looks like an attempt to set up a cooperation play, and I was worried that might lead to a raise from the SB with, for example, an underpair as an attempt to put some dead money in the pot.

Ten minutes to kickoff. Time to refill the coffee cup and put this one to bed.

A few hands

Recently, I've played a few of the $4.40, 180 person SNG's on PokerStars. Despite my notable lack of success to this point, I quite like the format and the fields. I've always managed to outlast at least 3/4 of the field, generally with at least an average stack. Making it to the money has been more problematic, but I can't help but feel that the notional overlay provided by the number of poor players in the field has to make the exercise one of positive expectation. One kvetch is related purely to the fact that I'm rather challenged by the time zone situation -- so the wait for one of these to fill often exceeds my patience. I wonder if a format more like the "mini" tournaments at UltimateBet, which have a fixed starting time with a cap on the field size, might not also be worth considering. I know that Stars offers some of these too, but they're really quite infrequent (and the field size is usually larger).

Here are a few hands from my most recent effort. Comments and suggestions are, as always, very welcome.

(15/30) I (2400) have A♥K♣ in the cutoff. One limper (1800) in front, and I raise to 120. Amazingly, both blinds fold, and the limper calls. Flop is 3♣4♥8♥ and the erstwhile limper bets 180 at a 285 pot. I find these positions awkward, with fold, call and raise all plausible actions. This time I raise to 360. Limper calls. The turn is the 10♦, checked to me. I bet 600 into the pot (now 1000) and take it down. It feels a bit pushy to be committing 1/2 my stack on nothing but a one card draw to top pair top kicker, but I guess that's what position and a tight-aggressive image are for.


(15/30) I (2950) have Q♠J♠ UTG+2 and open limp (something I do very rarely indeed). The cutoff (1200) and button (2400) also limp, the SB (2700) raises to 90, BB folds, I call, cut off folds, button calls. Three of us see the flop of 4♦7♠Q♦ the SB checks, I bet 200 at the pot of 330, the button calls and the SB folds. Turn is a rather unpleasant 9♦. I check, button bets 90 at a 630 pot. I contemplate raising this, but just call. River is the 2♦ I check, button bets 240 into the 920 pot, I fold. He shows 8♥7♥ so I folded the best hand. Weak/tight? I think my one chance to take down this hand would have been a medium sized check-raise on the turn (say to 360). If that's called, I can just give it up.

(25/50) I (2500) have K♥J♦ in the big blind. Hijack (2600) and cutoff (1250) limp, SB folds, and I check. Flop is 5♥9♦J♥. I bet 125 at the 175 pot, hijack folds, and cutoff goes all in. I'll leave this one as a "you decide".

(100/200/25) I (4900) have 8♥7♥ in the hijack and open with a raise to 600. To my dismay, both blinds (2600, 7500) call. Flop is 2♦7♠A♣. Both blinds check (I probably would have folded to any bet). This seems to be my one chance to win this hand so I bet 1200 into a 2000 pot, and take it down. I'm left wondering what they called with.

Save equus asinus

Much has been written lately of the endangered status of equusasinus ludus, subspecies pokerati in view of certain legislative activities in the USA. I'm happy to report that, to paraphrase Mark Twain, the reports of its imminent extinction are greatly exaggerated. In fact, last night I found an abundance of these cuddly animals in one of their traditional habitats, the micro limit SNG. You didn't think I'd given those games up did you? Well, I had, sort of, but I still can't resist signing in to one or two while watching sports highlights packages. A few examples are perhaps in order.

Top pair is gold At 15/30 blinds, After four limps , Alfalfa(1360) completes in the SB holding Q♣4♣. The flop is Q♥9♥2♣. Alfalfa bets 60 into the 150 pot. Not an unreasonable move, trying to take the pot down now with top pair no kicker, but perhaps a slightly larger bet was called for? The BB and three limpers fold but the remaining limper calls. The turn is the J♣. Alfalfa tosses another 60 chips into the pot with an air of gay abandon. Now the limper reraises to 660 (pot was 330). Alfalfa calls, and our tentative identification is confirmed. Further evidence is provided on the river, 7♠. Alfalfa checks, the limper goes all in, and Alfalfa calls again, losing to a six card straight (T♦8♣).

No, it's actually platinum At 15/30 blinds, Beauregard (J♠10♦) and Cassie (Q♠J♥) have limped into a pot with (of course) four others. Pot is 195 (the SB having failed, inexplicably, to complete). Flop is 3♠3♥J♦. Beauregard is all in for 230 more, which Cassie happily doubles. The button now goes all in for double the current bet again, and Cassie calls. Trip 3's anyone?

Diamonds even At 25/50 blinds, Dakota (A♣7♥) completes the small blind in a four way pot. On a flop of A♠4♠4♦ he (she?) bets 250 into a 200 pot. At this point identification is uncertain. Two of the limpers call. On the 3♠ turn, Dakota goes all in for another 900 chips. Identification confirmed.

I'd like to report that I killed these games, but being card dead is not a pleasant state when you know that every bet will be called. So, who's the donkey now?

Donkey names courtesy of 2,002 Donkey Names. Who knew?