Too close (not) to call?

About 1/4 of the field remain in a large, low buy in, MTT. You've been playing well, getting some cards, and have been blessed with a fairly passive table, and as a result have the chip lead at the table, with about 50BB. The average stack at this point is 20BB.

UTG+3 with AJ offsuit, you raise to 3BB (with blinds and antes, pot was 2BB before the raise). This folds to the small blind who pushes his 12.5BB into the pot. The SB has been with you at this table since the beginning of the tournament, and has been playing a very tight game.

So, do you call?

Under the circumstances it's a pure pot equity decision. If you call and lose you're still well placed, and if you call and win you're a bit better placed. The remaining field is still so large that knocking out a single player isn't an issue. Right then, what odds do you need? Your call is 10BB, the final pot will be 27.5BB, so your break even point is a 36% chance of winning the pot. Time to decide a hand range for the SB.

Let's start with a "tight" range, consistent with his previous play, and the fact that, while somewhat short stacked he had no particular need to make a play at exactly this moment. Say, TT+, AQ+. Since his unpaired hands mostly dominate yours, and his pairs are so good, your equity in that case is a pretty poor 28%. In order to get your 36%, if the unpaired hands aren't changed, you have to expand the paired range to 22+.

But changing the unpaired hands makes a big difference. If we add all KQ's, then suddenly the odds are right. Likewise if we leave the KQ's out but expand the Ax range down to AT.

So, too close to call or not?

And we're back

Paying due respect to my jet lagged state (but see below), I decided to minimize my financial risk at the poker tables last night, entering a $2.20 MTT and a $1.20 9-table SNG. I almost couldn't cope with the excitement ...

Discovered that I play passive when tired, and towards the end of the first hour (25/50 blinds) of the MTT was down to about 900 in chips. In late position I got 77 and decided to push over two limpers, just hoping to boost my stack a little. I hadn't been playing many pots, and I really didn't expect a call from either one of them. Unfortunately the BB woke up with AK and won the race. Hey it happens.

The exit from the SNG was a little more interesting. Still relatively early, I got JJ in the SB. Three limps (50 each) in front, so I (1285) raised to 300. Two of the limpers called, making a 1000 chip pot. The flop was a pretty dry T75 rainbow, and I simply pushed, hoping to pick up some money from a TPGK hand, and otherwise to avoid having to see the turn, while willing to take the chance that one of the other two had hit a set. After due reflection, the first of the limpers decided his T7 offsuit was worth a call. Welcome back to donkeytown. Let's just rewind a little ... oh never mind.

About jet lag. I actually don't think that the condition one suffers after crossing half the world's timezones should be called jet lag. Classic jet lag is when your body clock tries to stay on its "home" setting after crossing a few (three to six or so) time zones. It's hugely annoying, and can be nearly impossible to beat. After crossing twelve time zones, even your body clock realizes that something rather unusual has taken place and generally throws up its hands in the air and says "So all right, you tell me what time it is." But typically one gets about six hours of broken sleep in a 48 hour period during the trip, along with too much bad food, petty annoyances, stiff joints, etc. So it's not surprising to find that one is a little tired and grumpy for a few days after arrival. And I guess "jet lag" is as good a name as any for that.

Horsing around

Shamefully falling into a "bank your wins" mode after my first very good sessions in some time at $25NL last night, I played a couple of the old $3.40 SNG's (bubble/2nd), and a HORSE freeroll (despite the fact that even had I qualified I wouldn't have been able to play the tournament of which it was a satellite). Still, I was fairly happy to finish 86/2000.

Particularly so considering that my immediate right hand neighbour was playing "bet/raise everything" and had the chips to do it as he kept luckboxing his way into big hands starting with trash. As a result I was essentially forced to wait for good to premium hands then get everything in (when every pot is capped on every street you get all in pretty fast.) The problem was that those cards weren't coming. In one round, I played the first hand of O, then folded my way through to the middle of the next H.

And my exit hand? UTG at Omaha I have A♦2♣K♣K♦. Three quarters of my stack was in five ways pre flop. The 68T flop contained two diamonds, and I had visions of a scoop as the rest of my chips went in. But, no more diamonds, nor low cards arrived, and once again I saw my neighbour rack it up with his 579J.

Will the real Gigli please stand up

I think that I'm going to claim that dubious honour in the latest edition of kat's Friday night donkament. Though technically I wasn't the first person knocked out, I was the first person knocked out after the rebuy period. And after all, being knocked out of a rebuy before the end of the rebuy period doesn't mean that you're a bad poker player, just that you're stingy.

Our table failed to keep up its end in the drive towards 200 rebuys (which fell just short). I don't know what the excuses of my tablemates were, but in my case it was a simple symptom of my account balance on FT being in the low single figures at present.

So, I arrived at the second hour with something in the vicinity of 5.5K in chips -- while the average must have been well north of 10K. Soon thereafter I picked up AKs in one of the blinds. One of the few stacks shorter than I raised from LP, there may or may not have been an intervening call (I hate trying to dig hand histories out of FT), I pushed, and we were off to the races (against TT). No joy for me, and I was down to 10BB, "back to my comfort zone", I quipped at the time.

Unfortunately, I was not given a long time to enjoy it, as on my next trip through the blinds I picked up 88. Over Acornman's late position raise, I pushed. Unfortunately, he had some silly hand like KK. I mean really, who raises with that eh?

Today's agenda is to sit tight and hope that the house doesn't fly away in the first of our winter gales. You know, one of those where any small bird foolish enough to take to the air discovers that it can't get back to its starting point on the wing.

Except when they don't

Don't what? Don't lose. What don't lose? Geeez, pay attention will ya -- flopped straights. You'll be wanting me to tie your shoelaces next.

For a change of pace I played a couple of MTT's last night. Lately I've been playing almost entirely one table SNG's, but I find these get a bit tight and boring early in the North American week. In the first one I was knocked out just before the first break when my QQ was no match for 44. So it goes.

The second one started poorly, when, after the mandatory couple of orbits of folding, I decided (at 50/100 holding 1200 chips) to push from the button over a single UTG limper. The small stack small blind called with 55, and I was happy to see both an Ace and a Queen on the flop. But, not so happy about the 5 that accompanied them.

After my next run through the blinds, I was down to just 470 chips at 75/150.

Oh how embarassing, just realised that I was reviewing the hand histories from a different tournament. No wonder I couldn't remember that bad start. On to the real story.

After the mandatory couple of orbits of folding -- oh wait, I said that. Anyhow, with A♦K♦. UTG+2 at 10/20 I made a daring raise to 80 over one limper. The BB and the limper called, and we saw a flop of 7♣4♦3♣. Checked to me, I bet 200 into the 250 pot, called by the BB. The thought of flopped straights was in my mind. On the K♥ turn, he checked again. I bet 350 and he pushed. I almost let it go, but decided that this smelled more like a club flush draw with the king, than a flopped straight. Certainly it couldn't be two pair given the initial pre-flop call right? Wrong. K4. Not even suited. But RiverStars was there for me with a 7. Donkeylicious.

Wasn't this supposed to be about flopped straights? Ok, ok ...

Just a few hands later I've (2730) been moved to another table and with the blinds at 15/30 find 9♣6♣ in the small blind. Six of us in a limped pot see a flop of T♠8♦7♣. In case you're still not paying attention, that's a flopped non-nut straight for me, with a backdoor flush draw to boot. So the pot is 180, and I'm thinking about what to bet. My normal bet with say 4 players in the pot would be about 120, but I might just increase it a little. However, muscle memory has done its thing and I've already typed 120 when I have this thought. Just a tiny involuntary spasm of the fingers follows, and I look down to see that I've bet 1200 into a 180 pot. Overbet for value indeed. I'm resigned to winning a small pot when mirabile dictu one of the limpers calls. Now I'm seriously worried about a better straight instead, but of course a set is also a real possibility. So, I push the K♦ turn (since I'm not going to fold), and mister K♠9♠ calls! No chop for him on the river, and suddenly I'm sitting very pretty indeed.

I bounced around between 5K and 7K for the rest of the first, and all of the second hour. Then at the beginning of the third hour I hit a little rush of cards and moved up over 20K. Again, I bounced around a bit, and approaching the end of the third hour (or perhaps just at the beginning of the fourth), sat midfield of about 35 remaining on 25K. With the blinds at 1K/2K it was time for a big move, or time for bed. Pocket 4's on the button with a min-raiser UTG+1 looked ok to me (and I had a reasonable read that this wasn't an AA or KK min-raise). He, with a stack that just barely covered mine, chose to call with A♠T&spades, but the wrath of Hoy failed to make an appearance, and a KQJ flop killed most of the suspense in the hand.

For the record, against my range here which I put at AQ+, 22+ he's a 6:4 dog. I think that those were almost exactly the pot odds. If he was also in “go big, or go to bed” mode (with more justification than me -- assuming hartford is the obvious one, it was 5:30 a.m. there), then the call is reasonable. He went on to finish 9th.

BloggerPods report

The rescheduled ,bloggerPod tournament went off without a hitch today, which saved me from having to buy another house or something similar. Before I embark on my report though ...

It appears that there were a number of non-bloggers who entered. Of course the password mechanism that regulates entries into these tournaments is hardly secure, but whatever, their presence reduced the normally high standards of decorum and wit that one has come to expect from blogger gatherings. Now normally I am violently opposed to using regulation as a tool to attempt to encourage appropriate behaviour, but it seems to me that the poker sites have just missed an obvious software solution here.

Basically, the organiser of a private tournament should have admin privileges (to use a bit of geek speak). Two obvious routes suggest themselves. One is that the organiser supply a list of eligible players to the site (and that this list can be modified). Then if an outsider attempts to register he/she simply gets a message saying “contact admin”. The alternative, slightly less convenient solution is to allow arbitrary registration, but each registrant has to be approved by admin. Neither of these imposes any inconvenience on legitimate players, and as nearly as I can judge would be trivial to implement.

Ok, so on to the report.

Folded for a while. Limped suited connectors. Folded to a bet on flop. Folded some more (the final table of EPT Dortmund was on webcast, so this wasn't quite as deadly dull as it might have been).

I (1365) Picked up KK in MP at 20/40. Raised to 100 (I'd decided 2.5BB was going to be my standard raise in this tournament). katitude (880) called, as did the BB (3825). Kat and I had been chatting about when she was going to come to Dunedin for a visit -- she said, when she raised a stake for the trip in online poker. On a J44 flop with two spades (I have spade king), I bet 240 into a 320 pot. katitude went all in with top pair top kicker, and failed to improve. She said, “looks like it will be a while”. Now what I want to know is where she was planning to get a trans-Pacific flight for $8.50. Heck, I even want to know if it was the cash equivalent for an iPod!

Fold some more. Then I (2305) pick up A♥3♥ in MP. Somewhat randomly, I raise again to 100, getting called by jessehjesseh (2340) and the BB (3845). The flop was a not unpleasant 2♥4♥7♥. Even I slowplay this one, and we checked it out. On the 2♣ turn, I took a blatant stab at the orphan pot, betting 200. jesseh pushed over the top, and, though I suspected a misplayed hammer (simply calling my original raise rather than reraising), I felt I had to call. Nope, it seems that I'd successfully represented a weak hand as I was facing A♠K♥.

At 25/50 I opened with a raise holding TT on the button. Called by the BB who also called by 200 continuation bet on the K77 flop. We then checked the Q turn, and he led with a near pot sized bet on the river 5. I folded. What a wimp.

Then I had a rather embarrassing moment. I (4250) limped T9 offsuit over Schaubs (2200). The two of us and the BB see a flop of T52 rainbow. I make a pot sized bet, which eliminates the BB, but Schaubs calls. The turn is a 7, and my bet of 350 into the 520 pot is check-min-raised. For some reason I call. I'm tormented by a 9 on the river, and call the 2/3 pot sized all-in. Set of 7's.

AA, no action. Chips are dripping away.

At 50/100, I'm down to 1380 and get 88 in MP. I raise to 250, and my immediate neighbour tharley61 raises to 900. All fold back to me. If I'm going to call, I might as well push, so I do. He has AK offsuit and I win the race.

Fold some more, and then more than double up when I get a free play in the big blind with Q9 offsuit, which makes top two pair on the flop. I check raise over two minimum bets, get one call, and then push on the J turn. Called by K9??? No disaster ensues.

My AK offsuit is run down by a micro-stack's J3.

At this point I have a slightly better than average stack of around 5K. I pick up KK, UTG+2 at 100/200. My raise to 500 is met by a 2150 push from wwonka69. I call of course, and he shows AT offsuit. The 982 rainbow flop doesn't look terribly threatening until followed up by a 6 and then a 7.

AA, no action again.

Now my turn for a bit of luck. With 2500 remaining at 125/250/25, I pushed from the SB (no limpers) on AJ offsuit, only to find the BB with AQ suited. Fortunately, a jack on the flop sent the chips to me.

My QQ got a call from HighOnPoker, but no further action after a J85 flop, which I bet out of position. Perhaps should have been a bit more greedy there.

With the blinds increasing there was the usual amount of bouncing around, but I was hanging in reasonably well in 7th to 9th place. Until ...

At 150/300/25 on the button, I (7250) have AK offsuit. fulltiltpkr07 in the cutoff, has me covered, and pushes preflop. I call of course, and am delighted to find myself up against KQ suited. Except the flop delivered two cards in his suit and a queen. No subsequent help for me, and I go home in 13th place.

Had fun though.

Nothing to see here

Terrible day yesterday at both sit and gos, and multi-table tournaments. Largely of my own doing. Then I won all my losses back, and then some, in half an hour of cash play. I really wish that I found cash play more interesting, it's certainly a lot more lucrative.

Just to show how poorly I was playing (and to check out some new suit symbol codes I just discovered), here's a very early hand of one of the sit and gos:

In the SB I'm dealt 6♢6♣. Five players limp, I complete, the BB checks. Flop is J♠T♠6♡. I bet 80 into the 140 pot. How lame is that on such a coordinated board? I either need to overbet the pot, or try and get in a big check raise. Everybody calls. Pot is now 700. Turn is the 9♢. I bet 400 into the 700 pot. That's my second mistake at least, since I must be beaten at this point. Certainly, I should check and hope to see a free or cheap river which might pair the board. This time, I get one call, and then the button pushes all in. Mortified with my play to this point, and aiming to punish myself for it, I call (mistake number 3). He shows Q♢8♣. The board fails to pair on the river. and I'm left with 10 chips, which I actually manage to work up to 150 before busting out.

Wow, at least three mistakes in one hand (arguably I might have raised pre-flop). And so it went.

I promised

A write up of the $4/180 from yesterday in which I placed third. But, reviewing the hands, there really isn't much to say. So, just a few highlights.

First off, an episode of serious donkery from yours truly. At 75/150 I (5500) had 99 in LP. Folds to me and I raised to 450. Folds to the BB (4300) who min-raised. I reraised to 2100 and the BB called. Flop QJ8 rainbow, and he checked. I pushed my remaining chips into the 4200 pot, and he called with his final 2300, and turned up KK. Ooops. Fortunately Riverstars was there for me with a 9 on the river.

That hand actually had quite a good effect on me. As well as giving me a comfortable 50BB stack at that point, I was also so embarrassed at my play that I really turned up the concentration a notch. Not sure that's the best way to reach such a position though!

Fast forward to the final table. I hadn't been able to make any progress in the period from the bubble down to the FT, and my chip stack was just around 17K and 7th of 8 remaining. With blinds at 800/1600/75 it was starting to get a bit tight. So, I was happy to see QQ UTG+2, with two folds in front of me. Having just over 10BB and with the antes and the blinds already in the pots, I could have pushed, but I decided that I wanted to be a bit more ambitious, so I started with a raise to 4000. I was not impressed when this wound up getting three callers. Fortunately, the flop was a two-tone 874, and I just pushed my remaining 13K into the 17.5K pot, taking it down.

Some chat ensued (it was a friendly final table) and I inferred that several players thought my push there had been a move. Two hands later, now UTG, I picked up JJ. With about 30K now, I started with 4000 as usual. Again, I was not impressed to pick up three callers. But, completing the parallel, the flop was kind: 864 rainbow. So, I put in 12K. My neighbour (70K) min raised, knocking out the other two callers. I chose to consider myself pot-committed, and also that he might think I was making a move “again”, so I pushed. He called the paltry additional 2K or so, and showed 22. No runner runner straight, or a 2 appeared on the turn or river, and suddenly I was the chip leader.

And just a few hands later, I was now in the cutoff, and picked up TT. All fold to me, and I put in the usual 4000. This time just the BB (20K) called. On a K75 rainbow flop he led with 4800 into the 9500 pot. I had a pretty good feeling about his range, ruling out AK or an overpair to me except possibly JJ because he hadn't raised preflop (though a stop and go of a sort is an interesting tactic from the BB in this situation). So, the only hands I was worried about beating me were basically KQ, 55 and 77. Against that, there were a lot of hands that might c-bet this flop (AQ, AJ, AT, lower pairs). So I pushed, he called after some thought, and he turned over AQ. This time RiverStars was his friend, delivering a Q. Even more annoyingly, he went on to win, combining a couple more lucky breaks with some good play.

Lions and tigers and bears oh my

Approaching the bubble in a $4/180, with blinds at 300/600 I (11,000) find AA in the BB. LP (12,000) limps, SB (5,000) completes. I raise, semi-randomly to 2200. LP calls, and SB pushes. I raise again leaving about 3K behind. LP calls.

Flop comes 245 rainbow. I push, LP calls. He shows AK. SB has QJ. Turn is an A. River a 3. Chop it up!

Breaking news: bubble just broke, I'm sitting on 14K, about to fold 82 offsuit in the SB.

Update: Finished third. Annoyed with my play three handed, but otherwise content. Final table was a lot of fun -- details at 6 ... errr .... tomorrow sometime.

Dodging, or ditching, bullets is tough

Very early in an MTT, I'm dealt A♣A♥ in late position. If you want to think of it as first hand, that would be dramatic, but it was actually the third hand.

MP raises it to 80 (blinds 10/20), I reraise to 200, the BB and the original raiser call.

Flop J♥9♣2♥. Two checks to me, I bet 300 into the 610 pot. BB folds, and MP pushes 1280.

What now?

My analysis:

The pot is offering better than 2:1. Against a made set I have three outs (the aces plus the backdoor flush -- aren't you glad someone told you that a backdoor flush is worth one out?) The realistic sets are 9's and J's (I could see the call of 200 with ducks, especially with a third player in the pot, but the original raise of 80 seems unlikely). There are six such sets. If he has KK or QQ then he has two outs. QQ might not play the hand like this, but I expect KK certainly would. Twelve overpairs, discounted slightly for the QQ case. He might have some weird combination draw with decent outs (e.g. K♥Q♥). He might be a lunatic with AJ.


You can see where this is heading right?

I called, he had JJ, good game, me.

I don't know if I did the right thing. I don't even know if I believe that I did the right thing. I don't know whether I'll ever know that I did (or didn't do) the right thing.

Sigh.

Bustouts

Played two MTT's and two SNG's (two table) last night. Here are my bustout hands (you'll notice that there are four, from which you may draw the obvious inference). Some commentary included, but I'd appreciate your thoughts as well.

($2.20 MTT, 1000+ entrants) Blinds at 100/200, about 250 players remaining, I (2100) have A♥K♥ UTG. I could, and perhaps should, push but choose to raise to 800, viewing myself as pot-committed (I must remember to post sometime about how choosing a line of play in advance can mean that you're not subjected to “pressure points” and when/where this might be a viable strategy). Only the BB (3000) calls. Flop comes AQJ rainbow, he pushes, I call, he has QJ. No help.

Should I have been scared off by the push on what must seem to him a very dangerous board?

($5.50 MTT, 360 entrants) Blinds at 100/200/25, 90 players remaining, I (2400) have Q♦5♦ in the SB. All fold to me, I raise to 600, called by the BB (6000). Flop is T53 rainbow, I push, he has KT, calls. No help.

The call doesn't mean much beyond at least one high card. Second pair, heads up?

($1.75 turbo SNG, 18 entrants) Blinds at 100/200, 7 players remaining. In the SB, I (4200) get KK. UTG (4400) raises to 800, and a LP player (6800) pushes over top. I call of course, UTG folds. LP has AJ offsuit, and hits an ace.

Just another bad beat.

($1.75 turbo SNG, 18 entrants) Blinds at 600/1200/75, 3 remaining. Button (8000) folds. I (7700 after posting) have J6 offsuit in the SB. BB (9200 after posting) has been calling a lot. I complete, he checks. Flop is QJ2 double suited. I bet 1200, he raises to 2400, I push, he calls and shows J9. Kickers play.

Can I find the fold to the raise of my bet? Heads up am I supposed to check middle pair and then fold?

Poised

As I've written previously, the beats I find most difficult to take aren't the random calls of all ins with AJ, nor sets being beaten by runner runner straights, nor overpairs losing to their smaller siblings. The beats that bother me are hands where, by all objective measures I have made several good decisions, and then ...

An example? I thought you'd never ask.

Near the pseudo-bubble of a $4/180 (22 left, 18 pay, but the payouts from 10-18 aren't worth worrying about), I (11K) had about an average stack, and was in the SB. The BB had me slightly covered, and there were no small stacks at our table, so the recent play had been somewhat cagey and tight. With the blinds at 300/600, all folded to me, and with my powerhouse K5 offsuit I put in a 3xBB raise. The BB called immediately. The flop came out 356 rainbow, and with middle pair, good kicker, I bet 2000 into the 3800 pot. The BB went all in, fast.

I think that it is easy to make too much of “timing tells” in online play, but the fast call, together with the fast all in smelled to me of a prepared move. So, after a bit of thought, I called. He had T7 offsuit, and was actually in pretty good shape with his two overcards and a gutshot -- just shy of 40%.

But, my ego assured me, I deserved that pot for my call. And of course, the 4 came on the turn.

What do we think of the BB's move? First, let's consider just the chip counts in round numbers. If I fold, he wins nearly 6,000 chips. If I call, he either wins or loses 10,000. Against my likely calling hands he has between 20 and 40% equity. Say, for the sake of round numbers again 30%. So, his average loss, if I call is 4,000. If I'm folding more than four times in ten, he comes out ahead.

The table has been cagey, and (I think) he's seen me fold after a LP raise before, so that may not be such a bad estimate. Additionally, as I believe we both realised, despite being near average in chips we weren't in very solid positions. A double up to put either of us among the chip leaders would do a lot for our prospects. Also, the boost to his stack that a fold by me would have brought woud not have been insignificant.

So, probably not a bad move, well read, and then rewarded.

That, not so much

Almost didn't play last night, but figured I could fit in the $2.20 at midnight while watching the cricket. NZ set a good total, but one that you just had to know Australia were going to reel in. Ah well, it means tomorrow's match against England has meaning.

Lost about 1/3 of my stack early, playing AJ on a QJx flop with two diamonds (ever since Hoyazo's latest rant, this hand has a sort of dread fascination for me). I knew that the player in the pot with me was chasing the diamond draw (especially when the turn came another Q), and I never gave him the odds to do so, but he did, and it duly arrived on the river. At least I didn't pay him off there -- no implied odds for you sir!

Chipped up a little with JT making top pair on a dry board, and then dropped back to about 1K again with T9 hitting an open ended straight draw on the flop, in a multi-way pot, with ample expressed odds (and the prospect of implied ones, particularly if an 8 hit) but no joy from the dealer. At that point I fully expected to make my exit somewhere in the first hour, a little wiser, but no richer.

Stars then began to torment me with good cards. So, by the end of the next orbit, I was over 2K in chips largely from uncontested pre-flop raises, but with hands like JJ, AQ and KK. Another 1500 came my way when I over-limped with JT offsuit from the button in a six way pot (blinds 75/150). The flop was JT7, all spades, checked to me. I bet 600 into the 900 pot, and got one caller. Turn was an offsuit 6, and I pushed, collecting the pot.

That, and a little more, was taken away the very next hand, when I pushed over a small stack's (500) all in with AQ. One of the blinds (1700) decided to come along for the ride with KJ. The small stack had QQ, but I was still due a small profit from the blind, until the river delivered a J. Sigh. Down to 1700 after passing through the blinds (now 100/200) I got 22 on the button and pushed. Called by K9 in the big blind (for about 1/4 of his chips, which seems a bit rich), but the ducks didn't crack (I'd say “quack” but I'm not sure whether quacking would be good or bad in context).

Cue slip slidin' away as the theme music for the next couple of orbits, as I got no cards, and no opportunities to steal (unless you count Q6 offsuit under the gun as such an opportunity ...) At 200/400, and down to 2400 chips in the BB, a huge stack limped UTG+1, and I had AT offsuit. I contemplated pushing immediately, but decided to see a flop. That duly arrived JTT. Check, check. Turn -- the case T! Check, 800, call. River, Q. Push fast! See me, being weak, trying a fancy stop and go, completely incorrectly. I got the call -- from A7. Go me! Not even a single “wow” was heard.

With more chips to play with (but still only 10-15 BB for the most part), and relatively passive opponents, I went into fairly aggressive stealing mode, keeping my head above water relative to the blinds. Early in the third hour, I hit my high water mark of 27K, after doubling up with TT (called by a stack of similar size holding A4?) and then picking off a smaller stack's push with AQ (v. AT).

Then I well and truly fell off the hippocamp. Halfway through the third hour, about 75 players remaining, blinds at 600/1200, I (23K) had JT suited on the button. Folded to me, I bet 3000 (some 2BB raises had been taking down pots, so I reined in a little from my usual 3BB). The SB (15K) called. Flop came AKJ, and the SB checked. I bet 5K. What? I did what? Who did that? The SB pushed, I cringed, remembered, too late, some good advice, and folded. I chipped up a bit to 19K, then fell back to 12K when my AK couldn't win a race against a small stack's 99.

At the end of that orbit, I'm at 11.5K with the blinds at 800/1600. UTG I pick up the black queens. I push, of course, and am called by a former big stack (now only about 23K), with the red eights. Flop is J63, all spades, leaving him one out. Which duly arrived on the turn. None of my 10 re-suck outs materialized on the river, so I finished with an excellent return of about $1/hr on my investment.

I was left to reflect on the fact that being one-outered on the turn, with a significant number of outs remaining to re-suck on the river, probably feels worse than being one-outered on the river. I'm sure that Al would agree.

Delayed coverage

We present delayed coverage of the Full Tilt Poker $25K guaranteed, November 30. I'm in this because I picked up a random token in some S+G, and am about to head off to (probably pokerless) Brisbane in a few days, so need to use it up. Friday afternoon for me of course, and it seemed like Thursday night might be one of the looser/better games. Random comments from the second Ashes test, which is playing in the background, interspersed. Iakaris was also in this, and a few notes about him too. Times are from the start of the tournament, since I can't deal with converting the timezones all the time, and if I tell you what time it is here, that would be too confusing. Minimal editing has been carried out on the notes below.

Just to be perfectly clear though -- every hand where I voluntarily put money in the pot is mentioned. Squeak, squeak.

(0m) 1581 runners.
(10m) First elimination at my table.
(15m) Second elimination at my table.
(20m) First hand where I voluntarily put chips in pot. In MP(1395) after 1 limp, I limp with 22. Three to the flop of KK8. Check-check to me, I bet 100 into 140. All fold. Very few limped hands at this table.

(27m) Blinds 25/50. A5o on button. I raise to 150. Called by BB(4700). Flop A97. Bet. Win. Iak doing well (3600). England failing to score any runs in Adelaide.Table quite tight. I find the short levels/small increases at Full Tilt annoying.
(35m) 37o, 38o in the blinds. Whee. At least it's hard to make mistakes. Back to 1500.

(38m) 1hobojo tries, but fails to successfully drop the hammer from UTG. He kept trying, but a set of Qs was not buying it. England scoring a few runs.
(40m) 1hobojo rewarded for his faith by getting all in with AK, and getting a call from AT presumably thinking he was on tilt. He's still only at 750.
(42m) I cravenly fail to raise with the hammer UTG. Hand develops into a three way all in. QTo (1hobojo), JJ(2000), 85s(1600)???? J's hold.

(44m) Complete from the SB with A2o (1 limper). Fold to 2/3 pot bet from limper on Q86 flop. Down to 1350. Blinds 40/80
(46m) In cutoff, call EP min raise with AJs. Both blinds call. Flop A53, initial raiser bets 1/2 pot. I go all in, blinds fold, he calls with AT. I win. Up to 3000. Iak hovering.
(50m) Blinds 50/100. Table seems to be loosening. Iak up to 4600 (all in over a bet on QJ98 board)
(53m) KJs on button. Pick up/steal the blinds.

(55m) Big pot for Iak. He bets 300, called, then an all in(790). He calls, but next player goes all in for 1800. Iak folds. AQ and 99. 9's hit a set and win. He's down to 3850. Wonder what he had (checked by email ... 88) lots of paint was on the board (QJT92). Collingwood scoring runs, Bell imitating a lamp post.
(1h0m) Break time. 680 remaining. Average stack 3500, I'm on 2880.

(1h16m) AKo in cutoff. Pick up the blinds.
(1h18m) Steal with KJo from MP. 3000.
(1h21m) AA in SB. All fold to me of course. Min raise, BB folds. Sigh.
(1h22m) KK on button. All in from MP for almost exactly my stack. Call. He has A5. Ks hold. 6200! Ahead of Iak for the first time (knock on wood).

(1h27m) UTG+1, raise to 400 (BB 160) with KQo. Pick up the blinds. Image must be good -- it bloody well should be.
(1h36m) Table tightening again. Just sat through an orbit with utterly no cards, and no opportunities. 420 left, average 5600. I'm on 5800.
(1h40m) Iakaris gone. Hits a straight and a flush, but unfortunately, opp, who made a dubious call of Iak's all in, has better flush.
(1h45m) AA in SB. Bet of 780 from MP who began with 2200. I pot. He folds. Rats. Should have min raised? However, any raise from me pot commits him. Up to 6600. Still below average (7000).

(1h50m) AA UTG+2. UTG+1 bets 900. I min raise, he goes all in (3000). He has KK. Poor fellow. Over 10K. 88 next hand, and I pick up the blinds.
(1h54m) K7o on the button. Pick up the blinds.
(1h58m) Bugger. Just got moved. No more image, and the stack arrangements at this table aren't as favourable. Nice while it lasted. Time to fold a while and build up image again.
(2h3m) Stupid! Over limp with KJo from LP and get into a big pot on QJ4 flop (early limper had a Q of course). Down to 2000. Stupid, stupid, stupid. ATs next hand. All in with 2 others. Hit the nut flush. They had QQ and AQ. Back to 7000. I don't deserve it. My image now? Heeeeee Hawwwww.

(2h7m) Second break. I'm on 6500. Average is 9500. I'm 146 of 246 left, 216 get paid. Time for a glass of red wine to calm the nerves. Collingwood gets his half century just before tea. England lose no wickets this session. Not a lot of runs. Bell just got his half century too. When was he scoring runs?
(2h14m) Back to work. Blinds 250/500/50 so M is under 10. Fold Q8o in SB after raise from big stack in cutoff. Two stacks about my size to my immediate left, then a big stack, then a small one, then three more big ones, and one medium one. Awkward.
(2h19m) One of my neighbours just knocked the other out. Seat filled with a small stack. 223 left. Can't pretend that my first priority at this point isn't to get in the money.
(2h20m) 88 UTG+2. Standard raise picks up the blinds. Phew. Back to 7000.

(2h24m) Suspicious limp UTG+1 gives me a free play in BB with K4o (SB completed). Flop of AQ3 all check. Turn 5, limper bets min, SB calls. I fold. UTG+1 takes down pot with a bet on the river 3. Just noticed we're in the money. Time to play poker again.
(2h27m) Try a steal from cutoff with QJo (should have gone all in). Tiny all in raise from small stack BB with K6. Straight on the board splits the pot. Image gets even worse if that's possible. M = 4.
(2h30m) Cricketers back from tea. I know you think that's very important.
(2h32m) QJo in SB. I'll push if it's folded to me. Nope. Limp and raise. Fold. We're into the next money level. Wheee. 5000 chips left, blinds just went up to 400/800/100. Where are those AA hands now?

(2h37m) A7o in the cutoff. One limp in front. I push. Called by limper's AA. I finish 161st.

Quiz time

Feel free to comment on earlier decisions as well as the highlighted ones. Heck, just feel free to comment. I won't provide any reads, because it's a monster micro MTT and you're watching sport, reading blogs, playing other games etc. at the same time.

Q1 Early, blinds 15/30. On the button you(2500) have Q♦Q♠. Surprisingly, all fold to you. You bet 90, and the SB(1300) and BB(2500) both call. Flop is 8♠5♦2♠. Both blinds check and you bet 150 into the 270 pot. The SB calls, and the BB folds. Pot is now 570. Turn is 8♣. The SB checks. What's your plan?

Q2 Somewhat later, blinds 200/400/25. On the button again you(4200) have K♦8♥. All fold to you. The SB has 17,000, and the BB has only 200 chips remaining after posting. Do you make a move? If so, what?

Q3 Still 200/400/25. In the cutoff, you(6200) have 8♦8♣. All fold to you (what kind of micro MTT is this?) and you bet 1200. Only the BB(10,000) calls. Flop is A♦Q♥4♦. The BB checks. What do you do? For bonus points: what would you have done over a 2/3 pot sized bet?

Edit Changed the conditions to the actual ones in Q2. By the way, the opponents in Q3 are different to those in Q2 (you've had a table change)

Sticks and stones

It hasn't happened for a while (which is nice), but I had a player lose it last night and berate me in chat for a good ten minutes. I have to admire him, he always kept it just on the right side of offensive so there was no temptation to report him or anything. I decided early on not to play along, and just kept my peace. Oh, the hand? Well it hardly matters but anyhow.

Large micro MTT (he added redundantly). We're into the (tiny) money. Blinds are 400/800/50.

On the button, I(6900) have A♣4♣. MP(14,000) limps, two folds, and I raise all in. The SB(6500) calls all in, BB and MP fold. He turns over Q♦Q♠. I had my flush by the turn, and none of his four outs for a boat hit on the river. And then it began ...

The most common theme was my equine ancestry, though there were also frequent references to my intellectual disabilities. Perhaps most amusing were his speculations concerning my motivation in making the push "thinks any ace is gold", "wanted a call" etc.

Should I bother defending myself even here? Oh, what the heck.

It's not a play I would make every time the situation in terms of my cards and chips arises, but I thought there were some positive indications. I'd been playing very tightly, and expected the raise to get respect, particularly over a limp. Obviously, I'm hoping for folds all around which would boost my stack by almost a third. The MP limp seemed likely to be a lowish pair, some sort of connectors, or random paint. It seemed likely that MP would fold, rather than committing almost half his stack to the pot. Obviously, if I got called by a blind I would probably be way behind (as in fact I was), but I was willing to take that risk. And there you have it.

I couldn't resist looking my opponent up on sharkscope and thepokerdb just now. Looks like he's a relatively successful micro MTT player, but without any big cashes. So, I suspect, a case of severe frustration at consistently getting into the money but not pushing on. Better luck next time sir.

Oh yes, I finished 21/2325, knocked out when I held A♠T♠ by K♣Q♥ (he, a frequent stealer, made a 3BB raise from the cutoff, and I, with about 13BB, pushed from the button).

Operation successful, patient dead.

Mysterious internet connectivity issues had just as mysteriously resolved themselves last night, so I was happy as a pig in mud playing poker and listening to the radio. This week's Fighting Talk was not a vintage edition, but still had its moments. To compensate, the latest podcast on Words at Large from the CBC had a very interesting interview with Margaret Atwood.

In poker, the main event of the evening was the 11pm $2.20 NLHE MTT on Stars. Am a bit annoyed with myself about this one as I finished near the bubble, and put myself into a bad spot where I had to make a move. The bubble is quite irrelevant, but I should have been able to get quite a lot deeper. The hand that really cost me proved what a donkey I still am.

With the blinds at 100/200, I(6700) was in MP with Q♦Q♣. All fold to me, and I bet 600. My left hand neighbour(4700) called and everyone else folded. The flop comes K♠T♣7♥. I bet 1000 at the 1500 pot, which was called. This was where things started to get ugly. On the 6♣ turn, I decided to fire one more bullet, 1800 at the 3500 pot. Again called. We checked down an innocuous river, and, unsurprisingly, my opponent had K♥Q♥. I think my turn bet was just pure eructation of chips -- what else except a king or a set can call my bet on the flop? Ok, AT, JJ, possibly even some smaller pairs, or QJ (if that calls in the first place), might take a gamble, but I should be happy to check those hands down to the river (the opponent was quite passive). So that hand basically cost me half my stack, and the poker gods made sure that I didn't miss the lesson by following up with a period of dead cards.

Which brings us to our final exhibit, which took place at a different table.

Blinds and antes were now 200/400/50, and I (3700) picked up A♦Q♦ UTG. For some reason (probably misplaced worries about the bubble) I didn't push but simply opened with a 1200 chip bet (which can look stronger than the push here). My immediate neighbour (17000) called, and we saw the flop heads up. I'd already decided to push any non-wildly threatening flop, and followed through when it was T♠9♣6♥. Unfortunately, my dearly beloved neighbour with Q♠J♠ had flopped an open ended straight, backdoor flush, draw and, getting better than 2:1, certainly had the odds to call. Stars didn't prolong my torment, delivering the 8♦ on the turn, leaving me just 3 outs to a split pot, which didn't arrive.

I actually don't have much of a problem with my play on the final hand. My chips went in with the best of it, and while I can't be happy with the outcome, I think that in the same situation I'd play it the same way again. The annoying part of course is that I shouldn't have been in that situation at all, and was there only owing to my own idiocy on the earlier hand. With a larger stack, there'd be no need for me to push on the flop. I'd probably continuation bet, but would then shut down with the 8 on the turn. It would have been a fairly significant flesh wound, but not the coup de grâce.

Breaking my duck

(Readers who find the headline more than usually obscure will find an explanation at the end of the post.)

It was an odd weekend. Some sort of bizarre connectivity problem with my ISP meant that, while I was able to play online poker, I did not have access to the international web. So, no blogging, nor reading of blogs. I was dreading the accumulation on my bloglines this morning, but it turned out not to be as bad as I'd feared, I guess the American set were too overstuffed with turkey to have the mental energy to blog. More charitably, perhaps they were spending time with family. Anyhow ...

I've written before about my frustration with the $4.40/180 seat SNG's on PokerStars. I'd found the level of play there to be truly abysmal, but this didn't seem to be of any actual practical significance, since I didn't seem to be able to cash either. I almost decided to give them up entirely, but with the new tournament schedule having many fewer micro buy in MTT's, and with my lack of web connection ruling out the normally highly profitable single table SNG's, I put my name down for one again.

You claim to have spotted a non sequitur there? What does my lack of web connection have to do with not playing single table SNG's? I thought you'd never ask. I don't like to multitable when I'm playing a non-turbo SNG. On the other hand, I need some distraction, and my habit (which I now realise has become a prerequisite) is to listen to Internet radio, usually "listen again" broadcasts from BBC Radio 4, 5, or 7. By the way, if you have any interest in UK sport, and any sense of humour whatsoever, Fighting Talk is not to be missed. Ergo, lack of web connection means no single table sit and go's.

Well, the result was ... not so bad.

I had a feeling that it might be my day, when on the very first hand, I limped from MP with J♣8♣ (non standard for me later, but partly for image building reasons early), amazingly playing the hand only against the blinds. The flop of A♣Q♣9♣ was a thing of beauty, and when the SB completed his two pair with a 3♦ turn, I came out of the hand up 500 chips. If I'd known he had two pair, I would have bet more -- as it was I raised his river bet of 100 to only 300, which he called.

Then, in the same position in the second orbit, I picked up J♠8♠. Now, whether you believe in such things or not, it can't possibly be a good idea to spit an omen in the face, so I limped again, this time over two limpers in front, and again the blinds came along. Now the flop came 7♦9♥T♦. A limper in front of me bet 240, I raised to 600, and both blinds went all in. The limper dropped out, and I called expecting to see a set and a diamond draw, or perhaps pair plus open ended straight draw, but in fact found two diamond draws, A♦8♦ and Q♦T♦. No more diamonds or jacks arrived and I had essentially tripled up. I just checked this on PokerStove and am amazed that my equity was actually as high as 62% on the flop.

At the 50/100 level I think I played an AA hand too fast. UTG went all in for 500, which the cutoff(4500) called. I(4500) was on the button and pushed, losing the cutoff. It's a hand with some similarities to the one of Iakaris's that I discussed in "could do better". In retrospect I think that a smooth call, or min raise was in order, probably the latter for, while I'm happy to have the cutoff tag along, I don't really want the blinds to get the idea of making a relatively cheap call into a biggish pot.

All was not beer and skittles though, as I found myself short stacked twice in the "middle game" (from five tables, down to the paying two tables). In each case I wound up sucking out when my all in was called by a dominating hand. I didn't feel too badly about it, both because that kind of thing just has to happen, and also because the reason that I found myself short stacked in each case was due to similar hands going the other way. When the money bubble burst I was about 15th of 18 remaining. From there I had a pretty nice run of cards, flops hitting not so great cards, and (he modestly added) I think I outplayed my opponents.

The tournament ended after only a few hands of heads up play (three handed went on for ages). Blinds were at 2K/4K, and I was very slightly ahead in chips. In the BB I was dealt A♥K♠. My opponent min raised, and I simply called. The flop came A♠7♠4♠. I checked and my opponent bet the 16K pot. I read this as an ace, so unless he had two pair, I was ahead, and had the flush draw to fall back on. So I called. Turn was 3♣, I checked, and my opponent bet 40K. At this point I went all in, and he called with A6. No disaster on the river, and my duck was well and truly broken.

Breaking ones duck In cricket, if a batsman is out without having scored any runs he is said to have "made a duck" (or "scored a duck"), which is actually a contraction of "duck's egg" -- and hence if he gets out on the very first ball it's called a "golden duck". This is a rather embarrassing thing to have happen to a recognised batsman, as a decent batsman will average at least 30 runs per innings. Anyhow, as a result, when a batsman first scores any runs he is said to have "broken his duck". By extension, the expression now refers to obtaining some positive return for the first time from an endeavour, particularly if preceded by a period of frustration.

RIP Guinness and Poker

I've just returned, sides aching, from the funeral service. As one of the ones to whom Kat refers when she says:

All those future poker bloggers who will miss out on that first *squeeee* and feeling of validation when their blog gets pimped by the Blogfather himself. Poor things. I feel for 'em, I really do.

I can only ask: if you're so worried about my perilous emotional state, what are you going to do about it?

In much less important news, I played for the first time in a HORSE tournament yesterday, and quite enjoyed it, despite finishing well out of the money (but in the top half of the field). I have no idea what starting hands to play in Stud-8 though. Help?

Might have been better placed had a slightly shorter stack not hit his one outer on seventh street at stud (I had 8's full of A's, he had 9's up, and one of the 9's had been folded ...) but that's poker.

Also played my most card dead ever NLHE MTT (this is an objectively verified fact via PokerTracker). Not so bad as I was trying to concentrate on the HORSE, so the mind numbing routine of "fold, fold, fold, check/fold, complete/fold, limp/fold, fold, fold ..." did not distress me as it might of otherwise.

Missed one opportunity with blinds at 50/100 when I picked up 88 in MP. The cards I was getting, that looked like AA. I raised to 300, got an all in from LP, which I intended to call, then another all in from one of the blinds. Both players had me covered, and I decided discretion was etc. Got to see their hands of course: AJo, 77. To add insult to injury, an 8 hit on the flop, and neither of the other two ever improved. Almost made it to the bubble, before needing to push (8BB) from LP with QJ, running into AK in the small blind.

Chickenfeed

I happened to see this story on Reuters today. Excerpting the main information to save you chasing the link (but feel free!)

KARACHI (Reuters) - Pakistani authorities found chickens, not children, when they went to inspect a state-run primary school after a tip-off the establishment was being used to produce poultry.
...
"Chickens, television sets, video recorders, playing cards and breeding cages were found in what were supposed to be classrooms but no students," Kanwar Naved, the mayor of the city of Hyderabad told Reuters Wednesday.

The emphasis is mine and is there because it seems to me there must be more to the story. Obviously the plan was to use the playing cards to teach the chickens to play poker. A bit of training at rudimentary hunt and peck keyboarding skills and then they'd be released en masse onto the penny tables at your favourite online poker sites. At first the returns would be, well, chickenfeed, but the more successful chickens would be allowed to breed, and soon a race of poker playing super chickens would be dominating the 5/10 LHE tables.

It may seem a far fetched idea, but as some rather more clever people than I almost said about a similar plan: consider the enormous commercial possibilities if they succeed.

In other news, Fuel55 and Iakaris were no doubt active bidders at this auction.

Finally, in another tale of chicken feed, my beloved set of micro MTT's went reasonably well tonight. I finished third in one, knocked out as second stack with the chips all in on the turn where I had two pair, but big stack hit his flush (which he had no business drawing to, given my turn bet) on the river. So sad. But the story I promised myself to tell (as a penance) was of my exit near the bubble in another.

Blinds at 100/200/25, I(4300) picked up KK, UTG+1. UTG(5200) opened with a min-raise to 400. I reraised to 1600, folded to BB(3600) who went all in. UTG raised all in. If I can ever fold KK preflop it must be here. But I couldn't and found myself up against AA UTG and AK in the BB (killing one of my outs!). No miracle straight (and both my K's were dominated for flush purposes), and no K, so IGHN. Bad boy!