Dodging, or ditching, bullets is tough
Very early in an MTT, I'm dealt A♣A♥ in late position. If you want to think of it as first hand, that would be dramatic, but it was actually the third hand.
MP raises it to 80 (blinds 10/20), I reraise to 200, the BB and the original raiser call.
Flop J♥9♣2♥. Two checks to me, I bet 300 into the 610 pot. BB folds, and MP pushes 1280.
What now?
My analysis:
The pot is offering better than 2:1. Against a made set I have three outs (the aces plus the backdoor flush -- aren't you glad someone told you that a backdoor flush is worth one out?) The realistic sets are 9's and J's (I could see the call of 200 with ducks, especially with a third player in the pot, but the original raise of 80 seems unlikely). There are six such sets. If he has KK or QQ then he has two outs. QQ might not play the hand like this, but I expect KK certainly would. Twelve overpairs, discounted slightly for the QQ case. He might have some weird combination draw with decent outs (e.g. K♥Q♥). He might be a lunatic with AJ.
You can see where this is heading right?
I called, he had JJ, good game, me.
I don't know if I did the right thing. I don't even know if I believe that I did the right thing. I don't know whether I'll ever know that I did (or didn't do) the right thing.
Sigh.
MP raises it to 80 (blinds 10/20), I reraise to 200, the BB and the original raiser call.
Flop J♥9♣2♥. Two checks to me, I bet 300 into the 610 pot. BB folds, and MP pushes 1280.
What now?
My analysis:
The pot is offering better than 2:1. Against a made set I have three outs (the aces plus the backdoor flush -- aren't you glad someone told you that a backdoor flush is worth one out?) The realistic sets are 9's and J's (I could see the call of 200 with ducks, especially with a third player in the pot, but the original raise of 80 seems unlikely). There are six such sets. If he has KK or QQ then he has two outs. QQ might not play the hand like this, but I expect KK certainly would. Twelve overpairs, discounted slightly for the QQ case. He might have some weird combination draw with decent outs (e.g. K♥Q♥). He might be a lunatic with AJ.
You can see where this is heading right?
I called, he had JJ, good game, me.
I don't know if I did the right thing. I don't even know if I believe that I did the right thing. I don't know whether I'll ever know that I did (or didn't do) the right thing.
Sigh.
Labels: mtt
posted by Michael Albert at 7:27 am
1 Comments:
I guess for me it kinda depends on the situation. I know the money shouldn't matter when it comes to making an odds-based decisions, but if I've sat down in an MTT that I've planned my night around, or an MTT that has a nice buyin or prize pool, I'd probably let my aces go and be content with the fact that I got outflopped. You've probably got still around 1k left and live to see another day.
Purely odds based, I'd call it a marginal call. You need to have a 33% shot at the pot, and you beat KK, QQ, 10s and 8s down to 3s. You can expect that he may not be making that move w/8s and below. You beat AJ, KJ, and QJ, but only AJ would *possibly* justify an MP raise. You could also put him on 2 hearts (but not the A, obviously, which brings into question the raise) or a straight draw, which would also make the raise questionable.
I'd hate to let it go, but I think I'd have to make myself. I'd probably make the call to try and double up early in a $5 MTT and below, but anything above that I'd probably let it go.
Sorry for the rambling, just thought I'd get it all "on paper", even if it is mostly worthless.
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