Poised
As I've written previously, the beats I find most difficult to take aren't the random calls of all ins with AJ, nor sets being beaten by runner runner straights, nor overpairs losing to their smaller siblings. The beats that bother me are hands where, by all objective measures I have made several good decisions, and then ...
An example? I thought you'd never ask.
Near the pseudo-bubble of a $4/180 (22 left, 18 pay, but the payouts from 10-18 aren't worth worrying about), I (11K) had about an average stack, and was in the SB. The BB had me slightly covered, and there were no small stacks at our table, so the recent play had been somewhat cagey and tight. With the blinds at 300/600, all folded to me, and with my powerhouse K5 offsuit I put in a 3xBB raise. The BB called immediately. The flop came out 356 rainbow, and with middle pair, good kicker, I bet 2000 into the 3800 pot. The BB went all in, fast.
I think that it is easy to make too much of “timing tells” in online play, but the fast call, together with the fast all in smelled to me of a prepared move. So, after a bit of thought, I called. He had T7 offsuit, and was actually in pretty good shape with his two overcards and a gutshot -- just shy of 40%.
But, my ego assured me, I deserved that pot for my call. And of course, the 4 came on the turn.
What do we think of the BB's move? First, let's consider just the chip counts in round numbers. If I fold, he wins nearly 6,000 chips. If I call, he either wins or loses 10,000. Against my likely calling hands he has between 20 and 40% equity. Say, for the sake of round numbers again 30%. So, his average loss, if I call is 4,000. If I'm folding more than four times in ten, he comes out ahead.
The table has been cagey, and (I think) he's seen me fold after a LP raise before, so that may not be such a bad estimate. Additionally, as I believe we both realised, despite being near average in chips we weren't in very solid positions. A double up to put either of us among the chip leaders would do a lot for our prospects. Also, the boost to his stack that a fold by me would have brought woud not have been insignificant.
So, probably not a bad move, well read, and then rewarded.
An example? I thought you'd never ask.
Near the pseudo-bubble of a $4/180 (22 left, 18 pay, but the payouts from 10-18 aren't worth worrying about), I (11K) had about an average stack, and was in the SB. The BB had me slightly covered, and there were no small stacks at our table, so the recent play had been somewhat cagey and tight. With the blinds at 300/600, all folded to me, and with my powerhouse K5 offsuit I put in a 3xBB raise. The BB called immediately. The flop came out 356 rainbow, and with middle pair, good kicker, I bet 2000 into the 3800 pot. The BB went all in, fast.
I think that it is easy to make too much of “timing tells” in online play, but the fast call, together with the fast all in smelled to me of a prepared move. So, after a bit of thought, I called. He had T7 offsuit, and was actually in pretty good shape with his two overcards and a gutshot -- just shy of 40%.
But, my ego assured me, I deserved that pot for my call. And of course, the 4 came on the turn.
What do we think of the BB's move? First, let's consider just the chip counts in round numbers. If I fold, he wins nearly 6,000 chips. If I call, he either wins or loses 10,000. Against my likely calling hands he has between 20 and 40% equity. Say, for the sake of round numbers again 30%. So, his average loss, if I call is 4,000. If I'm folding more than four times in ten, he comes out ahead.
The table has been cagey, and (I think) he's seen me fold after a LP raise before, so that may not be such a bad estimate. Additionally, as I believe we both realised, despite being near average in chips we weren't in very solid positions. A double up to put either of us among the chip leaders would do a lot for our prospects. Also, the boost to his stack that a fold by me would have brought woud not have been insignificant.
So, probably not a bad move, well read, and then rewarded.
posted by Michael Albert at 7:49 am
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