Too close (not) to call?

About 1/4 of the field remain in a large, low buy in, MTT. You've been playing well, getting some cards, and have been blessed with a fairly passive table, and as a result have the chip lead at the table, with about 50BB. The average stack at this point is 20BB.

UTG+3 with AJ offsuit, you raise to 3BB (with blinds and antes, pot was 2BB before the raise). This folds to the small blind who pushes his 12.5BB into the pot. The SB has been with you at this table since the beginning of the tournament, and has been playing a very tight game.

So, do you call?

Under the circumstances it's a pure pot equity decision. If you call and lose you're still well placed, and if you call and win you're a bit better placed. The remaining field is still so large that knocking out a single player isn't an issue. Right then, what odds do you need? Your call is 10BB, the final pot will be 27.5BB, so your break even point is a 36% chance of winning the pot. Time to decide a hand range for the SB.

Let's start with a "tight" range, consistent with his previous play, and the fact that, while somewhat short stacked he had no particular need to make a play at exactly this moment. Say, TT+, AQ+. Since his unpaired hands mostly dominate yours, and his pairs are so good, your equity in that case is a pretty poor 28%. In order to get your 36%, if the unpaired hands aren't changed, you have to expand the paired range to 22+.

But changing the unpaired hands makes a big difference. If we add all KQ's, then suddenly the odds are right. Likewise if we leave the KQ's out but expand the Ax range down to AT.

So, too close to call or not?