Reads or results

It's always hard to remind yourself not to pay attention to the results of any one particular hand, but rather to analyze it according to the information available to you at the key moment. Case in point, a recent hand at $25NL.

In the BB I picked up TT. Folded around to the cutoff, a habitual raiser in late position who raised to $0.75. I reraised to $2.25, not particularly wanting to play TT from out of position. Here is where it got interesting -- he reraised all in, but because he was a short stack, I was getting between 2:1 and 3:1 on a call. I called without hesitation, and lost to AA.

In retrospect I was annoyed with myself, but then I realized that I'd probably played the hand pretty well. At the key moment (the final call) the least favourable (to me) range I can put him on is JJ+, AK. Against that range, I win 1/3 hands, so the call is clear. I actually think that his range is much wider than that, including some lower pairs, and more coin flip hands.

Of course what really stung was that it turned a small win at that table to a small loss. Ah well, shortly thereafter second pair on a Q74 flop decided to pay me off all the way to the river, when the Q on the turn convinced him that I didn't have one.

Picture dump

Just a few photos from a walk out to Victory Beach on the Otago peninsula today. So called, because the wreck of a 19th century steamship, the Victory, can be seen there, rather than in commemoration of any event.

Last night was very cold, and there was still a fair bit of snow around on the hills. The air temperature though would have been about 8 or 9 degrees C, and there was little wind, so it was quite comfortable for walking. As you can see, the beach was extremely crowded. We first saw other people as we were returning to the car to come home.

Online poker is not rigged

I can officially announce that it's time for everyone to put away the tin foil hats. I have definitive proof that online poker is not rigged. And the proof is that old mathematical favourite, a proof by contradiction.

For, it is clear that if online poker were rigged then certain things would follow. For instance, someone returning to a poker site after an absence of a month or so would be rewarded with a nice session or two. Nothing extravagant, but enough to make sure that the hook is once again well and deeply placed. Above all, such a person would be protected from precisely the sort of events that would lead a more susceptible personality to become convinced that online poker is rigged.

Well, it certainly hasn't happened that way, and therefore we can conclude beyond a shadow of a doubt that online poker is indeed not rigged.

QED