Friday, April 13, 2007

"It's an easy game" OR "44 is the new 55"

Playing .25/.50 NLHE, I have slightly more than my original $50. Over two limpers, the player two seats to my right bets pot. He's a solid, winning, player at these levels, and probably has AK or QQ+ (possibly KK+). I have 44.

Fuelishly I call (despite being short a spot). We wind up four ways to the flop, including the button, so I don't quite have position. On a flop of 442 it quickly becomes clear to me that position is not likely to be a factor. Original raiser bets pot, (I might have preferred a check from him, so that I could put in a probe sized bet trying to keep as many people as possible in the pot) I call, the other two fold. The pot and our stacks are now roughly equal. The turn is a J, so I figure that I'm not being runner-runner over-quadded (I know there's no such word, but I couldn't resist). The raiser now checks.

I make a small $15 bet, slightly under half the pot, in order that my push on the river (assuming he calls) will only be for 1/3 the pot. He calls, and calls the river (5) too, showing KK.

I think he could have gotten away from that, since he's beaten by all of 22, 44, JJ and AA (plus 55, but that would be inconsistent). Even JJ would be a little odd, except his pot sized bet at that point was with four in the pot, so could have been a strong continuation move with AK on what looked like a dry flop.

On the other hand it has to be said that, in the long run at these levels if you adopt a policy of never folding KK under any circumstances you will be well ahead of the game.

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