Good call/bad call?
Let's start with a question.
Multi table online (UB) low buy in tournament.
Blinds at 20/40.
You have a stack of 2550 and are in the big blind with A♣K♦. I'm going to force the early action up to a certain point.
Two limpers, the small blind (initial stack: 1650) raises to 90. You bet 300 more, the limpers fold, and the small blind bets pot (a little over 1000). The pot sized bet as opposed to an all in is probably just UltimateBet laziness, hitting a button rather than using a slider.
Do you call?
At the time I did - in fact I saved time by reraising all in, which was called of course, and then I duly lost to aces.
I thought I'd made a bad push, but had I really? Effectively there was 2070 in the pot when I reraised (I did not give myself any fold equity -- so SB's 1650, my 340, and the two limps of 40 each). My push is 1310. In percentage terms, using pure chip equity here which at this early stage of the tournament is probably appropriate, I need
1310/(1310 + 2070) = 38.7%
equity in the pot to break even.
The most conservative range I put my opponent on is AK, KK or AA and it turns out that even against this range I have 37% equity -- so a marginally bad call. But I don't really believe in that range in a low buy in online MTT. As well as the chance of a pure bluff, I think that pairs possibly as low as TT (but certainly QQ) are in the mix, as well as possibly AQ. Introducing AQ makes me a favourite (even if pairs are still just KK or AA) and even just adding QQ pushes me over the threshhold.
Sure I could, and perhaps should, save a bit of money by simply calling and folding if I whiff on the flop (but that gives up on AQ).
So perhaps not such a bad call.
On the other hand, the opponent who later called my all in with 53s (facing TT as it happened). Now that was a bad call. Of course we all know who went home ...
Multi table online (UB) low buy in tournament.
Blinds at 20/40.
You have a stack of 2550 and are in the big blind with A♣K♦. I'm going to force the early action up to a certain point.
Two limpers, the small blind (initial stack: 1650) raises to 90. You bet 300 more, the limpers fold, and the small blind bets pot (a little over 1000). The pot sized bet as opposed to an all in is probably just UltimateBet laziness, hitting a button rather than using a slider.
Do you call?
At the time I did - in fact I saved time by reraising all in, which was called of course, and then I duly lost to aces.
I thought I'd made a bad push, but had I really? Effectively there was 2070 in the pot when I reraised (I did not give myself any fold equity -- so SB's 1650, my 340, and the two limps of 40 each). My push is 1310. In percentage terms, using pure chip equity here which at this early stage of the tournament is probably appropriate, I need
1310/(1310 + 2070) = 38.7%
equity in the pot to break even.
The most conservative range I put my opponent on is AK, KK or AA and it turns out that even against this range I have 37% equity -- so a marginally bad call. But I don't really believe in that range in a low buy in online MTT. As well as the chance of a pure bluff, I think that pairs possibly as low as TT (but certainly QQ) are in the mix, as well as possibly AQ. Introducing AQ makes me a favourite (even if pairs are still just KK or AA) and even just adding QQ pushes me over the threshhold.
Sure I could, and perhaps should, save a bit of money by simply calling and folding if I whiff on the flop (but that gives up on AQ).
So perhaps not such a bad call.
On the other hand, the opponent who later called my all in with 53s (facing TT as it happened). Now that was a bad call. Of course we all know who went home ...
Labels: math
posted by Michael Albert at 11:00 am
1 Comments:
I push all-in in this situation despite it being quite early in the game. Winning the hand would make you chip leader of your table I'd imagine and in a good position to bully and accumulate an even bigger stack.
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