Pot, shot, potshot
I've been playing more cash NLHE at UltimateBet lately, gradually building my bankroll and moving up through the limits. Since this isn't my real bankroll, I've been ignoring Chris Ferguson's 5% rule (don't buy in for more than 5% of your bankroll) in favour of a 25% rule. My general pattern is to two table, playing about 50 hands per table, before taking a break. So, I'm not grinding out thousands upon thousands of hands per day, but perhaps 1000 a week, more or less.
The following hand pushed my roll over the next tipping point. It felt fairly fishy on my part at the time, but I'm starting to think differently. Anyhow, you be the judge. We're playing $0.10/$0.25 NLHE, I was up a bit to $29.10, and the SB had $16.80.
In the cutoff, I was dealt Q♥Q♣. Folded to me, I bet pot ($0.85) just because it was easier than typing in a 3xBB bet. In turn, the SB bet pot ($2.80). It had been a fairly passive table, but cards had been running my way, and my image was probably looser than I was actually playing. Based on that, I expected, to be significantly ahead of the SB's range at this point (in fact against AJ+, 77+, which I'd consider moderately tight here, I have 60% pot equity). So, I raised pot again ($8.65). At this point the SB went all in, which was a raise of $8.15 over and above my previous bet.
A tad better than 3:1 odds to call.
The first question is: what range do we assign to the SB?
If just KK and AA, then our odds aren't good enough (we'd need 4:1). Adding the one remaining QQ hand wouldn't change that any, but adding JJ certainly would (we'd be up to 40% pot equity).
What about AK? Let's think about matters from the perspective of the SB holding AK. The initial pot sized reraise makes sense. What about the position after I pot again? It's much the same story. If he feels my range there is QQ+, AK (and he might well suspect that the pairs go lower and the aces down to AQ), then he must at least call (he's getting 2:1 and has 40% pot equity). But, if he calls, he's more or less committed to c-bet any flop, for the rest of his stack, lest he fold AK on a dry flop to a c-bet from me on a hand that he ties or beats (this should really be factored into the computation of the odds above -- since we're now assuming that if he calls, he's playing for his stack regardless -- this changes his odds from 2:1 to 3:2, which is exactly borderline if he is giving me QQ+, AK). Furthermore, he also knows that I'll fold to that c-bet only if I'm beaten. So, it makes more sense to put the money in immediately.
Thus, it feels like AK should or could bet like this. My QQ has 40% equity against KK+ and AK, so a call getting 3:1 is clear. Even if we don't give the SB this much credit, and say reduce the AK options to AK suited (not because suitedness is so important, but because this just conveniently represents betting AK this way only 25% of the time), then a call is still mathematically correct (pot equity around 27%).
And, at these levels, I've seen this betting pattern with hands like T3 offsuit occasionally -- never mind pairs ten or higher and AQ.
So, I now feel that the call I made in a flash (well, a little slower than a flash), was better than it felt when I found out that my opponent had KK. But, to my delight, the board finished up as: T♥9♠J♣K♥6♠.
Some may sneer at pre-flop poker, but I think the discussion above shows that there can be some subtlety even in these reraising wars. So c'mon, take your potshots at this pot shot.
The following hand pushed my roll over the next tipping point. It felt fairly fishy on my part at the time, but I'm starting to think differently. Anyhow, you be the judge. We're playing $0.10/$0.25 NLHE, I was up a bit to $29.10, and the SB had $16.80.
In the cutoff, I was dealt Q♥Q♣. Folded to me, I bet pot ($0.85) just because it was easier than typing in a 3xBB bet. In turn, the SB bet pot ($2.80). It had been a fairly passive table, but cards had been running my way, and my image was probably looser than I was actually playing. Based on that, I expected, to be significantly ahead of the SB's range at this point (in fact against AJ+, 77+, which I'd consider moderately tight here, I have 60% pot equity). So, I raised pot again ($8.65). At this point the SB went all in, which was a raise of $8.15 over and above my previous bet.
A tad better than 3:1 odds to call.
The first question is: what range do we assign to the SB?
If just KK and AA, then our odds aren't good enough (we'd need 4:1). Adding the one remaining QQ hand wouldn't change that any, but adding JJ certainly would (we'd be up to 40% pot equity).
What about AK? Let's think about matters from the perspective of the SB holding AK. The initial pot sized reraise makes sense. What about the position after I pot again? It's much the same story. If he feels my range there is QQ+, AK (and he might well suspect that the pairs go lower and the aces down to AQ), then he must at least call (he's getting 2:1 and has 40% pot equity). But, if he calls, he's more or less committed to c-bet any flop, for the rest of his stack, lest he fold AK on a dry flop to a c-bet from me on a hand that he ties or beats (this should really be factored into the computation of the odds above -- since we're now assuming that if he calls, he's playing for his stack regardless -- this changes his odds from 2:1 to 3:2, which is exactly borderline if he is giving me QQ+, AK). Furthermore, he also knows that I'll fold to that c-bet only if I'm beaten. So, it makes more sense to put the money in immediately.
Thus, it feels like AK should or could bet like this. My QQ has 40% equity against KK+ and AK, so a call getting 3:1 is clear. Even if we don't give the SB this much credit, and say reduce the AK options to AK suited (not because suitedness is so important, but because this just conveniently represents betting AK this way only 25% of the time), then a call is still mathematically correct (pot equity around 27%).
And, at these levels, I've seen this betting pattern with hands like T3 offsuit occasionally -- never mind pairs ten or higher and AQ.
So, I now feel that the call I made in a flash (well, a little slower than a flash), was better than it felt when I found out that my opponent had KK. But, to my delight, the board finished up as: T♥9♠J♣K♥6♠.
Some may sneer at pre-flop poker, but I think the discussion above shows that there can be some subtlety even in these reraising wars. So c'mon, take your potshots at this pot shot.
Labels: cash
posted by Michael Albert at 10:55 am
3 Comments:
Honestly, how can sit there and write a huge post about playin .10/.25 poker? re you not embarassed that your bankroll is like 40 bucks?
i think it is fucking hilarious
Gosh, my first anonymous comment. How exciting. And from someone who either can't do elementary arithmetic or failed reading comprehension, and in any case can't type. What a surprise.
YOU FUCKING NIGGERFUCKINGFAGGETNIGGER
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