How low can you go?

Found myself deep in a foulie yesterday. The usual cures are:

• exercise, but a howling southerly was blowing;
• a decent meal, but I had leftovers that needed to be finished up; or
  
• a good book, but I've read The Fourth Bear four times in the last two months, and I certainly wasn't in the mood to go to the library.
  

So I played some poker instead. This is not a recognised cure for a foulie.

I realised relatively quickly, and with remarkable good sense under the circumstances, that the cash tables were not a good place to be, since one symptom of the mood was a fatalistic need to call any and all bets with any sort of a piece of the flop. So, I found the lowest buy in multi-table SNG's available, popped a couple up on the screen and went at it, starting new ones as necessary.

In the money? A predictable 0%.

Exit hands?

• KJ v min-raised AA on KQT flop (37/45)
  
• AT 9BB push, called by 99 (6/18)
  
• AT 8BB push, called by 88 (16/45)
  
• AJ 9BB push, called by QJ (7/18)
  

At which point the dubious pleasures of that exercise palled, and I retreated to the last resort at such times, bad television.

Nothing to see here

Terrible day yesterday at both sit and gos, and multi-table tournaments. Largely of my own doing. Then I won all my losses back, and then some, in half an hour of cash play. I really wish that I found cash play more interesting, it's certainly a lot more lucrative.

Just to show how poorly I was playing (and to check out some new suit symbol codes I just discovered), here's a very early hand of one of the sit and gos:

In the SB I'm dealt 6♢6♣. Five players limp, I complete, the BB checks. Flop is J♠T♠6♡. I bet 80 into the 140 pot. How lame is that on such a coordinated board? I either need to overbet the pot, or try and get in a big check raise. Everybody calls. Pot is now 700. Turn is the 9♢. I bet 400 into the 700 pot. That's my second mistake at least, since I must be beaten at this point. Certainly, I should check and hope to see a free or cheap river which might pair the board. This time, I get one call, and then the button pushes all in. Mortified with my play to this point, and aiming to punish myself for it, I call (mistake number 3). He shows Q♢8♣. The board fails to pair on the river. and I'm left with 10 chips, which I actually manage to work up to 150 before busting out.

Wow, at least three mistakes in one hand (arguably I might have raised pre-flop). And so it went.

I promised

A write up of the $4/180 from yesterday in which I placed third. But, reviewing the hands, there really isn't much to say. So, just a few highlights.

First off, an episode of serious donkery from yours truly. At 75/150 I (5500) had 99 in LP. Folds to me and I raised to 450. Folds to the BB (4300) who min-raised. I reraised to 2100 and the BB called. Flop QJ8 rainbow, and he checked. I pushed my remaining chips into the 4200 pot, and he called with his final 2300, and turned up KK. Ooops. Fortunately Riverstars was there for me with a 9 on the river.

That hand actually had quite a good effect on me. As well as giving me a comfortable 50BB stack at that point, I was also so embarrassed at my play that I really turned up the concentration a notch. Not sure that's the best way to reach such a position though!

Fast forward to the final table. I hadn't been able to make any progress in the period from the bubble down to the FT, and my chip stack was just around 17K and 7th of 8 remaining. With blinds at 800/1600/75 it was starting to get a bit tight. So, I was happy to see QQ UTG+2, with two folds in front of me. Having just over 10BB and with the antes and the blinds already in the pots, I could have pushed, but I decided that I wanted to be a bit more ambitious, so I started with a raise to 4000. I was not impressed when this wound up getting three callers. Fortunately, the flop was a two-tone 874, and I just pushed my remaining 13K into the 17.5K pot, taking it down.

Some chat ensued (it was a friendly final table) and I inferred that several players thought my push there had been a move. Two hands later, now UTG, I picked up JJ. With about 30K now, I started with 4000 as usual. Again, I was not impressed to pick up three callers. But, completing the parallel, the flop was kind: 864 rainbow. So, I put in 12K. My neighbour (70K) min raised, knocking out the other two callers. I chose to consider myself pot-committed, and also that he might think I was making a move “again”, so I pushed. He called the paltry additional 2K or so, and showed 22. No runner runner straight, or a 2 appeared on the turn or river, and suddenly I was the chip leader.

And just a few hands later, I was now in the cutoff, and picked up TT. All fold to me, and I put in the usual 4000. This time just the BB (20K) called. On a K75 rainbow flop he led with 4800 into the 9500 pot. I had a pretty good feeling about his range, ruling out AK or an overpair to me except possibly JJ because he hadn't raised preflop (though a stop and go of a sort is an interesting tactic from the BB in this situation). So, the only hands I was worried about beating me were basically KQ, 55 and 77. Against that, there were a lot of hands that might c-bet this flop (AQ, AJ, AT, lower pairs). So I pushed, he called after some thought, and he turned over AQ. This time RiverStars was his friend, delivering a Q. Even more annoyingly, he went on to win, combining a couple more lucky breaks with some good play.

Lions and tigers and bears oh my

Approaching the bubble in a $4/180, with blinds at 300/600 I (11,000) find AA in the BB. LP (12,000) limps, SB (5,000) completes. I raise, semi-randomly to 2200. LP calls, and SB pushes. I raise again leaving about 3K behind. LP calls.

Flop comes 245 rainbow. I push, LP calls. He shows AK. SB has QJ. Turn is an A. River a 3. Chop it up!

Breaking news: bubble just broke, I'm sitting on 14K, about to fold 82 offsuit in the SB.

Update: Finished third. Annoyed with my play three handed, but otherwise content. Final table was a lot of fun -- details at 6 ... errr .... tomorrow sometime.

Of odds and evens

Not much postage here recently. I haven't been playing a huge amount of poker, and, for various reasons, when I have been playing it's mostly short cash game sessions. While these have been more than reasonably profitable, and have done a nice job of padding the bankroll for some future MTT entries, I just don't find the situations that arise in cash games to be generally as interesting as tournament ones (and of course, there's a greater incentive to keep key observations to ones self!)

I've been weighing into the debate over at Hoy's place concerning pot odds/tournament play etc. Naturally enough, I've been playing the role of math guy, but I don't believe that the math is the be all and end all of such analyses. May I beg your indulgence and illustrate with a bridge hand from last night? I promise not to get technical and talk about rectifying the count for a double squeeze or anything like that. I do need to describe some background though.

The event is the first of four qualifying nights for the main pairs championship at the club. To qualify for the main event, you must finish in roughly the top third of the field (sum of best three scores). The field as a whole is weak, and it would be a major surprise not to qualify -- think "surviving the first hour of a multi table tournament" but with the added kicker, that, regardless of how many chips you wind up with at the end of that hour, everyone will start fresh with the same chip count in the second hour.

Hmmm ... there's an interesting concept for a poker tournament format ... after every four levels everyone still surviving gets the average chip stack ... anyhow back to our story.

My partner and I bid to a small slam in hearts, requiring us to make all the tricks but one. The opponents, unfortunately good, rudely cashed their side ace at trick one, so I needed to make the remaining tricks. The key situation was the trump suit, where we held 9 of the 13 cards, missing the queen.

This is a standard situation and, without other information, there is a slight edge (about 2%) in playing for the queen to drop, as opposed to an alternative play of finessing. The first trick in trumps needed to be played in a particular way to guard against one of the possible 4-0 splits (I could't cope with the other one), but both players followed. The second trick in trumps was the decision point.

I led the trump from dummy, the player to my right followed smoothly (as I would expect him to whether he had one or two trumps remaining), and I paused ...

My gut was telling me to finesse. There was something, some tell, that I couldn't pin down. Was this enough "other information"? My head fought back with a threat to tear up my mathematicians union card if I didn't play for the drop. My head won. My gut was right.

I still don't know what the tell was -- I've pinned it down to something that happened on the first trump trick, and I think from the player who had one trump, not the one who had three.

Will I finesse next time? I don't know.

Dodging, or ditching, bullets is tough

Very early in an MTT, I'm dealt A♣A♥ in late position. If you want to think of it as first hand, that would be dramatic, but it was actually the third hand.

MP raises it to 80 (blinds 10/20), I reraise to 200, the BB and the original raiser call.

Flop J♥9♣2♥. Two checks to me, I bet 300 into the 610 pot. BB folds, and MP pushes 1280.

What now?

My analysis:

The pot is offering better than 2:1. Against a made set I have three outs (the aces plus the backdoor flush -- aren't you glad someone told you that a backdoor flush is worth one out?) The realistic sets are 9's and J's (I could see the call of 200 with ducks, especially with a third player in the pot, but the original raise of 80 seems unlikely). There are six such sets. If he has KK or QQ then he has two outs. QQ might not play the hand like this, but I expect KK certainly would. Twelve overpairs, discounted slightly for the QQ case. He might have some weird combination draw with decent outs (e.g. K♥Q♥). He might be a lunatic with AJ.


You can see where this is heading right?

I called, he had JJ, good game, me.

I don't know if I did the right thing. I don't even know if I believe that I did the right thing. I don't know whether I'll ever know that I did (or didn't do) the right thing.

Sigh.

You'd think ...

You'd think that The Time Warp would be a perfectly satisfactory song to have come up on your iPod while you were out running.

But you'd be wrong.

Why? I thought you'd never ask.

If you're of a certain age and cultural background, then the choice is between lurching spasmodically along as your brain fights nigh on thirty years of conditioning to resist:

It's just a jump to the left
And then a step to the right
With your hands on your hips
You bring your knees in tight
But it's the pelvic thrust
That really drives you insane

or alternatively, to give in, stop your run, and just do it with the strong possibility of extreme embarrassment should you be observed.

Quick quiz

You're playing heads up. Blinds are 50/100, the small blind calls in the dark, and you check your option with A7 (I know you should raise, but we're setting up a quiz here). The flop comes 345 rainbow. You act first after the flop.

How much do you need to bet so that it would be a mistake for the SB to call in the dark? Probably best if you try to answer based on your gut feelings, obviously you can find out the odds with PokerStove or similar.

(Ok, it would always be a “mistake” in some sense for the big blind to play this way -- what we're asking here is what are the A7 odds against a random hand).

Can't think where this might have come from ...

Band, meet wagon

Hey, it looks like I might finally play in a blogger event. The temptation of an iPod is just too much to resist, and the price is right.

Mac Poker

Of course, it'll be a workday here, but summer school will be over and I don't think that I have any lectures to give then. Shhh ...

One of those nights

When I just shouldn't have sat down at the virtual felt. Or, at the very least, should have had the good sense to stand up again long before I did. Despite the date, or perhaps because of it, there was certainly no love for me at the tables. What went wrong? In no particular order:

• There were monsters under the bed
• Tilting at windmills
• Pausing for an occasional tasty snack of thistles

'Nuff said.

Bustouts

Played two MTT's and two SNG's (two table) last night. Here are my bustout hands (you'll notice that there are four, from which you may draw the obvious inference). Some commentary included, but I'd appreciate your thoughts as well.

($2.20 MTT, 1000+ entrants) Blinds at 100/200, about 250 players remaining, I (2100) have A♥K♥ UTG. I could, and perhaps should, push but choose to raise to 800, viewing myself as pot-committed (I must remember to post sometime about how choosing a line of play in advance can mean that you're not subjected to “pressure points” and when/where this might be a viable strategy). Only the BB (3000) calls. Flop comes AQJ rainbow, he pushes, I call, he has QJ. No help.

Should I have been scared off by the push on what must seem to him a very dangerous board?

($5.50 MTT, 360 entrants) Blinds at 100/200/25, 90 players remaining, I (2400) have Q♦5♦ in the SB. All fold to me, I raise to 600, called by the BB (6000). Flop is T53 rainbow, I push, he has KT, calls. No help.

The call doesn't mean much beyond at least one high card. Second pair, heads up?

($1.75 turbo SNG, 18 entrants) Blinds at 100/200, 7 players remaining. In the SB, I (4200) get KK. UTG (4400) raises to 800, and a LP player (6800) pushes over top. I call of course, UTG folds. LP has AJ offsuit, and hits an ace.

Just another bad beat.

($1.75 turbo SNG, 18 entrants) Blinds at 600/1200/75, 3 remaining. Button (8000) folds. I (7700 after posting) have J6 offsuit in the SB. BB (9200 after posting) has been calling a lot. I complete, he checks. Flop is QJ2 double suited. I bet 1200, he raises to 2400, I push, he calls and shows J9. Kickers play.

Can I find the fold to the raise of my bet? Heads up am I supposed to check middle pair and then fold?

I'm soooooo confused

Seen at the top of a recent email message:

Warning: This message may not be from whom it claims to be. Beware of following any links in it or of providing the sender with any personal information. Learn more

So, is it safe to click the link or not? Reminds me somehow of the signs on some of the doors in our building: “This door to remain closed at all times.” Why not just be honest: “This is a wall.”

And in breaking news, I think I spotted Fuel55 in the crowd shot accompanying the news story below.

Protesters disrupt Vancouver Olympics celebration

Poised

As I've written previously, the beats I find most difficult to take aren't the random calls of all ins with AJ, nor sets being beaten by runner runner straights, nor overpairs losing to their smaller siblings. The beats that bother me are hands where, by all objective measures I have made several good decisions, and then ...

An example? I thought you'd never ask.

Near the pseudo-bubble of a $4/180 (22 left, 18 pay, but the payouts from 10-18 aren't worth worrying about), I (11K) had about an average stack, and was in the SB. The BB had me slightly covered, and there were no small stacks at our table, so the recent play had been somewhat cagey and tight. With the blinds at 300/600, all folded to me, and with my powerhouse K5 offsuit I put in a 3xBB raise. The BB called immediately. The flop came out 356 rainbow, and with middle pair, good kicker, I bet 2000 into the 3800 pot. The BB went all in, fast.

I think that it is easy to make too much of “timing tells” in online play, but the fast call, together with the fast all in smelled to me of a prepared move. So, after a bit of thought, I called. He had T7 offsuit, and was actually in pretty good shape with his two overcards and a gutshot -- just shy of 40%.

But, my ego assured me, I deserved that pot for my call. And of course, the 4 came on the turn.

What do we think of the BB's move? First, let's consider just the chip counts in round numbers. If I fold, he wins nearly 6,000 chips. If I call, he either wins or loses 10,000. Against my likely calling hands he has between 20 and 40% equity. Say, for the sake of round numbers again 30%. So, his average loss, if I call is 4,000. If I'm folding more than four times in ten, he comes out ahead.

The table has been cagey, and (I think) he's seen me fold after a LP raise before, so that may not be such a bad estimate. Additionally, as I believe we both realised, despite being near average in chips we weren't in very solid positions. A double up to put either of us among the chip leaders would do a lot for our prospects. Also, the boost to his stack that a fold by me would have brought woud not have been insignificant.

So, probably not a bad move, well read, and then rewarded.

Running well.

I talked about running well, in the physical sense, yesterday. At the tables, I've also been on a good run lately, and posting about it doesn't seem to have invoked the doomswitch yet, so I figure that I must be in Al's good books at the moment, and will carry on reporting it. Last night's episode was a single table $10+1 SNG on Stars. My first impression, at the lower blind levels was that it played much more tightly than a $5.50. But, sample size is small, and once the blinds had escalated a bit, there wasn't any real difference.

Testing the waters, at 10/20, I raised to 60 from MP with J9 suited. The BB called, and checked the T96 rainbow flop. I bet 90 into the 130 pot, and collected it. Still at 10/20, limped 99 UTG+1. Three call, flop is 872 rainbow, and a bet of 80 into the 90 pot takes it down.

The first really significant hand of the evening came when I had KK in MP. With the blinds at 10/20, UTG raises to 60. One caller in front of me, and I reraise to 180. Both call. Hmmm ... KK in position, can't be bad. Things got better on a KT8 two tone flop. Two checks to me, and I made the mandatory half pot “continuation bet”. UTG folds, but the other guy calls. Turn is a 5, putting two flush draws on the board. As my stack is now less than the pot, I push over his check, and he calls, having flopped bottom set. No one-outer on the river for him. Can you get away from this cooler? I don't think I can, though I might have been tempted to lead the flop and I hope that I would at least have had a think about it if raised. An early double up in a one table SNG is very very nice. If nothing else, I tend to concentrate harder afterwards in order to avoid the embarassment of not cashing from such a dominant position.

For better than a full orbit I didn't get any cards that even tempted me to play them. I wasn't sitting on my lead, far from it, I was just not willing to invest chips with the sort of rubbish I was getting. For the record, with a large stack early, I tend to mentally assign a certain portion of it for “speculative” limps or raises, particularly with position. This is as much for image building as anything else, portraying me as looser and more passive than I actually am, but of course occasionally one does hit the flop hard with these hands, and then can often win huge pots with well disguised monsters.

My first opportunity for further action came at 25/50 with AQ offsuit on the button. Except, UTG(1170), who'd been tight, raised to 200. All folded to me, and, like the wuss I really am, I folded too. There would be better places to take a stand. Interesting point here -- my memory of this hand was that there had been action in two places in front of me, but the cold hard facts don't lie. Amazing how our brains try to sugarcoat the truth. Reviewing this hand now with PokerStove, if UTG's range is AQ+, 88+ then I definitely have the worst of it in terms of the expressed odds (200 into 275). If I include AJ it becomes marginal, and if I include KQ then the immediate odds are ok. However, my implied odds are not very good despite holding position, since on an A high flop, if UTG doesn't hold an A, he's not likely to pay off much, while if he does, I may be the one doing the paying off. Even a Q high flop could be trouble for me. I'm not proud of my fold, but it doesn't make me sick either.

Three hands later I was dealt AA. UTG limped, and I raised to 150. All folded, except UTG who called. Flop came AT6 rainbow, and UTG checked. Given my previous betting patterns a check here would be very suspicious, so I put in the usual half pot bet, and he folded. C'est la vie. Very next hand I limped 44 and took down a three way pot on the hammer-friendly 772 flop. Good thing it wasn't a blogger table. We're still 8 handed as the blinds move to 50/100. I take down a few pots first in preflop, sometimes with hands, sometimes not.

Then, I manage a big suckout. In late position I open with a raise to 300 holding KQ suited. The button calls. On a Q93 two tone flop, I bet 500 into the 750 pot, to put the button all in. Holding KK he doesn't have much difficulty with his call. But RiverStars obliges with a Q on the river, and I move up to 4500 chips.

Down to 6 handed at 75/150 I (4700) pick up KQ offsuit in the cutoff. I limp over one limper (1400), and the flop comes JT9 rainbow. The limper bets 300 into the pot and I just call. The turn is a 7, and he bets 300 again. I raise to 1000, which would put him all in, but he folds. C'est domage. I really thought the raise here had a better chance of being called, than would a bet on the river, but perhaps I shoud have given him the chance to catch something.

Four handed, I tried a steal from the button with Q3, and was raised all in for 2000 chips by the BB. Fold. I was tending to get walks in my BB, so there wasn't a lot of pressure to get busy, except to maintain chip position with respect to the rest of the field. As a result, when we hit the money, I'd (4600) drifted out of the chip lead (6700), with a short stack (1850) in the action as well. The short stack played very passively at this point, which made no sense at all. Within a few orbits he'd drifted down to 1000 chips. To be fair, I wasn't making any progress myself during this period. Then, I raised UTG with K9, he called all in with A2, and I hit my king. So, we're heads up -- me with 5700, against 7800.

Second hand of heads up play, I get 93 offsuit in the SB. My raise is called. I hit two pair on the 943 flop, and check over his check. He bets on the turn (2), I just call, then reraise all in on the river (T). He calls with 97. He still has 3000 chips but goes on tilt, all in every hand from then on. If I wanted to, I'd interpret this as a compliment -- in a -EV gambler's ruin situation, your optimal strategy is to risk as much as possible on each event. After a few rounds of folding, I finally choose to call a push over my SB raise with Q2 suited. I had decided to guess that he might not push with a real hand, and was happy to discover that either my guess was right or I was lucky. He had T7 -- I won the hand with a meaningless flush as he'd never improved.

Pride goeth before ...

Yesterday was Waitangi Day, when NZ celebrates the events that ensured Arts graduates with History degrees would never be unemployed. Other than a run (of which, more later), I decided to celebrate with a few SNG's on FullTilt, where my extremely small bankroll is basically found money.

I started with one of the $8.70 turbo satellites for a $24+2 token. My previous experience had confirmed the information from other bloggers that these are very soft indeed, full of people who have no idea how to play to the conditions of contest (specifically, that fifth is just as good as first). Yesterday, I was one of those people. With 6000 chips, and 10 players remaining, I chose to get involved in three successive pots against small stacks. Yes, I was in with the best of it each time, and yes, I was turned or rivered, but that's not the point. I had no business playing those pots, having put myself in a position where I could have waited for near certainties. Sigh.

I went relatively deep in both a 45 and a 90 person SNG (and, as I'd suspected I would, loved the latter, as it was double stacked), but without ultimate joy in either case. Feeling a bit tiltish, I decided to call it a day and watch the cricket. Back to the tables tonight.

My running is going pretty well. I took most of December off, being in Brisbane, and not really wishing to run in the heat (or sufficiently early in the morning to avoid it), and it took a while on my return to get back to previous levels (sometimes this getting older business really sucks). But I've now got my longer runs up to about 12k, and have been adding some speed work to my midweek shorter runs, in the hopes of increasing my base speed (which, at the moment is around 5:15/km -- certainly I'd like to have that under 5:00). It helps that the weather has been cooperative. February is by far the most reliable month for decent weather in Dunedin (which, given the generally unreliable weather here, is significant), and this year has, thus far, been no exception.

Second is the new first

Or it felt that way, after my performance in a $5.50 SNG last night. I did finish second, and almost achieved this distinction without ever having more chips than I began with. In fact, my maximum chip count was 1510, a dizzying height which I reached twice, both times required to pay the SB on the next hand. In 82 hands: my best A was AT (seven hands total with an ace); I had two broadway cards five times; and my only pair was 33 (once). It appears that, while you may need some cards to win, you don't need them to finish second.

Let's just have a quick look at all the pots I was actively involved in:

(10/20) Overlimp on the button with 33, fold on AT5 flop.
(10/20) Attempt to overlimp in LP with KJs, SB makes it 100, take a slightly speculative call. Fold on Q42 flop.
(25/50, 8 remaining, 1260) Note the entire missing level. Raise to 150 with KQ offsuit in middle position. All fold.
(25/50) See a free flop from BB with 93 offsuit. Bet 100 into 150 pot on a two tone K92 flop. Small stack goes in for an extra 80. Call, expecting to see a king, but he has a 9 with better kicker (8). Down to 1105.
(50/100, 7 remaining, 830) Push from the cutoff with 87 suited. Collect the blinds. A knockout a few hands later lets me miss the BB. I love PokerStars.
(75/150, 5 remaining, 705) Push from the cutoff with AT offsuit. Collect the blinds.
(100/200, 5 remaining) After paying the BB I have only 505 behind. The button (2K) calls and I have A4 suited. I push, he calls, and I win over QJ offsuit (A on the flop). Up to 1510, over my starting stack. But I have to pay the SB next. The situation is actually not too bad as there is a huge stack just to my left, who is not very aggressive, and the remaining stacks are all under 2K as well.
(100/200, 5 remaining) Free ride in the BB with T9 offsuit. Would I have called? We'll never know.
(100/200, 5 remaining) We hit the bubble as UTG minraises with AA and the monster stack in the SB calls with Q7 offsuit. Flop is 776, and not surprisingly UTG gets stacked. What's that about slow playing aces?
(100/200, 4 remaining) I get a ride in the BB again!
(100/200, 4 remaining) Bubble bursts when 1K stack on the button pushes with A7 offsuit, only to find the monster stack in the BB with aces.
(100/200, 3 remaining) Oops. Try a steal (fortunately not an all in push), with 32 offsuit in an attempt to get some breathing room over the other small stack who is currently sitting out. Monster stack calls, and I have no choice but to check it down, as he's calling any further bet from me. He bets on the river, and I gratefully fold unimproved. Down to 710.
(100/200, 3 remaining) Other small stack goes all in from the BB with JJ. Monster stack in the SB who'd only completed, calls with Q5 and duly collects a Q.

Heads up (1200 vs 12K) lasted all of two hands. I pushed K6 from the small blind, and was called by A7.

That, not so much

Almost didn't play last night, but figured I could fit in the $2.20 at midnight while watching the cricket. NZ set a good total, but one that you just had to know Australia were going to reel in. Ah well, it means tomorrow's match against England has meaning.

Lost about 1/3 of my stack early, playing AJ on a QJx flop with two diamonds (ever since Hoyazo's latest rant, this hand has a sort of dread fascination for me). I knew that the player in the pot with me was chasing the diamond draw (especially when the turn came another Q), and I never gave him the odds to do so, but he did, and it duly arrived on the river. At least I didn't pay him off there -- no implied odds for you sir!

Chipped up a little with JT making top pair on a dry board, and then dropped back to about 1K again with T9 hitting an open ended straight draw on the flop, in a multi-way pot, with ample expressed odds (and the prospect of implied ones, particularly if an 8 hit) but no joy from the dealer. At that point I fully expected to make my exit somewhere in the first hour, a little wiser, but no richer.

Stars then began to torment me with good cards. So, by the end of the next orbit, I was over 2K in chips largely from uncontested pre-flop raises, but with hands like JJ, AQ and KK. Another 1500 came my way when I over-limped with JT offsuit from the button in a six way pot (blinds 75/150). The flop was JT7, all spades, checked to me. I bet 600 into the 900 pot, and got one caller. Turn was an offsuit 6, and I pushed, collecting the pot.

That, and a little more, was taken away the very next hand, when I pushed over a small stack's (500) all in with AQ. One of the blinds (1700) decided to come along for the ride with KJ. The small stack had QQ, but I was still due a small profit from the blind, until the river delivered a J. Sigh. Down to 1700 after passing through the blinds (now 100/200) I got 22 on the button and pushed. Called by K9 in the big blind (for about 1/4 of his chips, which seems a bit rich), but the ducks didn't crack (I'd say “quack” but I'm not sure whether quacking would be good or bad in context).

Cue slip slidin' away as the theme music for the next couple of orbits, as I got no cards, and no opportunities to steal (unless you count Q6 offsuit under the gun as such an opportunity ...) At 200/400, and down to 2400 chips in the BB, a huge stack limped UTG+1, and I had AT offsuit. I contemplated pushing immediately, but decided to see a flop. That duly arrived JTT. Check, check. Turn -- the case T! Check, 800, call. River, Q. Push fast! See me, being weak, trying a fancy stop and go, completely incorrectly. I got the call -- from A7. Go me! Not even a single “wow” was heard.

With more chips to play with (but still only 10-15 BB for the most part), and relatively passive opponents, I went into fairly aggressive stealing mode, keeping my head above water relative to the blinds. Early in the third hour, I hit my high water mark of 27K, after doubling up with TT (called by a stack of similar size holding A4?) and then picking off a smaller stack's push with AQ (v. AT).

Then I well and truly fell off the hippocamp. Halfway through the third hour, about 75 players remaining, blinds at 600/1200, I (23K) had JT suited on the button. Folded to me, I bet 3000 (some 2BB raises had been taking down pots, so I reined in a little from my usual 3BB). The SB (15K) called. Flop came AKJ, and the SB checked. I bet 5K. What? I did what? Who did that? The SB pushed, I cringed, remembered, too late, some good advice, and folded. I chipped up a bit to 19K, then fell back to 12K when my AK couldn't win a race against a small stack's 99.

At the end of that orbit, I'm at 11.5K with the blinds at 800/1600. UTG I pick up the black queens. I push, of course, and am called by a former big stack (now only about 23K), with the red eights. Flop is J63, all spades, leaving him one out. Which duly arrived on the turn. None of my 10 re-suck outs materialized on the river, so I finished with an excellent return of about $1/hr on my investment.

I was left to reflect on the fact that being one-outered on the turn, with a significant number of outs remaining to re-suck on the river, probably feels worse than being one-outered on the river. I'm sure that Al would agree.

Well, that was nice.

I've made an amazing discovery: finding material to write about in a poker blog is easier if you actually play some poker. With that in mind, after an afternoon of watching the rugby 7's from Wellington, and a nice roast pork dinner, courtesy of my landlady finally getting around to fixing my oven, I sat down for a couple of multi table tournaments - a $4/180 and the midnight $2.20 Hold'em event on Stars.

The less said about the latter event, the better. With the blinds at only 25/50, and with my stack more or less at its initial 1500 chips, I tried a quasi-steal from MP, holding QJ offsuit, opening with a bet of 150. That was called by the buttons and both blinds (obviously, as usual, image means nothing in the early stages of these events). The flop was J65 rainbow, and the BB bet 50 into the 600 pot. I raised to 450, and he min-reraised. Can you say set? I knew you could. Somehow, I couldn't, pushed (I'm pot committed if I call, regardless), and went back to concentrating on the $4/180.

That had started well, when on the very first hand I had KQ♦ in the small blind, and saw a flop with five others. The KJ8 rainbow flop looked pretty good to me, with four limpers along. A bet of 60 into the 100 pot, folded two, so we were three handed. The turn was a 5, putting two hearts on the board (not a major worry) and 160 into the 280 pot got only one caller. A black 6 on the river, and second pair once again called (this time a bet of 300 into a 600 pot). So, I was immediately up to 2160 chips. The very next hand played out similarly. This time I had AJ on the button, hit second pair on the flop (QJ2, with two hearts) and eventually collected a smallish pot from a worse second pair (I didn't be the river, as there was certainly a chance he had QT, Q9 or similar).

Then I settled comfortably into folding mode for a while. With the blinds still at 15/30, and with just over 2000 chips, I opened UTG to 100 with AK. A small stack (340) pushed from late position and I called of course, expecting a race. Nope, Q7. Then came another success with AJ. I called a 3BB raise in the cutoff, hit my ace on the flop, and collected quite a lot from a MP player who overplayed JJ. Over 3000 with the blinds still 15/30.

My biggest fonkey moment, to use le mot de jour, of the tournament came with the blinds at 50/100. UTG+1, I (3700) raised to 300 with K♥Q♣. The cutoff (900) pushed, and I was faced with calling 600 into a 1350 pot. Getting better than 2:1 and figuring an underpair was quite a live possibility, I called. I just checked on PokerStove -- the call is better than break even against a range of 77+, AQ+, and only marginally wrong against 99+, AQ+ -- so I retract my assertion of fonkeydom. It felt fonktastic though, when my opponent showed KK, and I turned the straight.

There followed quite a long period of no cards -- and I languished at, or a bit below, average in chips. Things got worse at 100/200/25, when I (3800) raised to 600 from the cutoff with AQ offsuit, and was min-raised by the button. I had to call that, but folded after a flop of KJ8, reducing me to 2800, and putting me fairly much into “double up or die” mode. With only 2200 remaining, I got QQ in the cutoff. One limp in front of me, and I could easily have pushed, but got greedy and raised to 800 instead. Called from one of the blinds, and the original limper. I jammed the KJ4 flop, and the blind who'd flopped an OESD and had a big stack, called as well (correctly, getting 3:1). No nine or ace spoiled the party for me, and I was back in the running with 5500.

With 5000 remaining at 200/400/25 I got AK in the BB, and a 3700 stack pushed from UTG. I called, and was pleased to see QJ. Again I was “lucky”, or at least, not unlucky, and the AK held up, putting me over 9000. I got moved at that point to a very passive table, which suited me just fine. Several orbits in a row, I got a walk in the big blind. Now that can't be bad! My chip stack started moving gently upwards, as I was able to steal the occasional blind as well.

My big move came at 400/800/50. I (12000) got 99 on the button. All fold in front of me, and I bet 2000. The SB who had me well-covered, pushed, fast. I had a betting pattern read here, and called with some confidence. He showed 77. Again, my “no bad beats” protection seemed to be in good order. We were in the money at this point. Fromt there to the final table it was fairly dull stuff.

Hand for hand before the final table we had three micro stacks and two big stacks (one being me, fortunately) at our table, which made it really tough -- no medium stacks to steal from. Fortunately, I eventually picked up an ace in the BB when one of the micros pushed, and was able to dispose of his KQ. I arrived at the final table with 42K chips, in fourth place. Mainly, getting no cards, I stayed out of the way. We were down to five handed, and I was down to 33K, at 1500/3000/150, when I got AQ UTG. I raised to 7500, called immediately to my left, and then the button raised to 24K. Binds folded, and getting better than 2:1 if I pushed and was called, I did. To my relief, the original caller folded, and the button called. As expected, or at least hoped, I was in a race against 99, and flopped an ace.

Time to cut to the finish. Three handed had gone on for quite a while. I'd entered with 50K against two 100K stacks (I know, there are 240K chips in play, but this is approximate ok?) and we all see-sawed around for an extended period. At the critical moment (2K/4K/200), I (90K) held AK in the SB. The button (115K) limped, I raised to 12k, the BB folded, and the button pushed. Despite the evidence, I just couldn't find a fold. Sure enough, up against AA and no miracle for me.

It was fun though.

Counting outs isn't so bad ...

From “that other game” again last night:

Seven of North's 13 cards were diamonds, and she preempted 4♦ over 1♠ at equal vulnerability on a queen high suit with a side ace. South, a good player, had only one diamond, and at least one spade, and actively sought a diamond ruff. Is it more likely that spades are splitting 4-0 or 3-1 with North holding two singletons, but not the spade queen; or otherwise?

(You have three minutes to solve this problem, and be prepared to justify your answer to your partner if your resulting choice doesn't work).

For the record, we had a 65% game, which may not sound so good (and indeed it wasn't -- it should have been 70% but I lost some concentration towards the end, not having played a lot of bridge recently). But, it's a score that is virtually guaranteed to win a session (and even a 60% game will win more often than not). Duplicate bridge is a game of extremely low variance, as poker would be if you were comparing your results on a hand with many other people playing identical cards.

And of course, like most big sessions at cash tables, you get a score like that because people are throwing money at you (and, to give you a little credit, you're putting yourself into a position to catch it!)

Poetic justice

I played that other card game again last night, and was hugely amused by the following sequence of events at one particular table (poker analogy follows). We had just arrived, to play the next hand (in duplicate bridge one set of players moves around the room) and were treated to the following conversation from the pair seated at the table:

TC: On that last hand, you shouldn't have taken the king with your ace when hearts were led from dummy.
NP: But we learned that “Aces are for taking kings”
TC: Yes, but not when the dummy has QJT9 as well, and no outside entry.
NP: (Looks confused)
TC: Blah blah blah (translation: I'm a much better player than you are and am doing you a favour by playing as your partner; aren't I a wonderful and clever person?)

Meanwhile, in the hand we were playing, TC had become declarer at 3NT, requiring nine tricks to fulfill the contract. My partner, god bless him, found the only troublesome lead, in fact the only lead that could restrict declarer to exactly those nine tricks (sometimes, virtue has to be its own reward). But a funny thing happened. Despite it being clear to everyone at the table (and even the family next door watching “Prison Break”) that the contract would be defeated if he lost the lead before cashing his nine top tricks, TC cashed precisely eight, and then lost the next one.

The poker analogy:

TC: In that last hand, you should have over-limped from late position with 64s.
NP: But we learned that hand selection is important, and the cutoff, button or one of the blinds might have raised.
TC: Yes, but the table's been passive so that's not very likely, and you have great implied odds if you hit the flop.
NP: (Looks confused)
TC: Blah blah blah ...

To be followed immediately by a hand where TC holds the mortal nuts on the river, last to act, and simply calls.